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To: Paul V. who wrote (49457)	2/27/2001 8:27:27 PM
From: Eric	Respond to of 77399

Paul V A good observation. Thirty or forty years ago it was pretty easy to figure out at what time in an economic cycle you could jump into various stocks or investments. IMHO today things are much tougher. International trade, and linking of our economies can now really muddle up a clear view to thinking of what will do best. Technology complicates it even more as it takes a bigger percentage of our economies today than just a few years ago. I do think we can overlay interest rates and GDP to get a rough picture of what will happen. Refi rates are taking off as people are trying to save money. I'm a little bit worried going into summer with the power crisis that we now have. That could really mess things up before we go into winter. Eric