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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (6825)	2/27/2001 7:50:21 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I continue to believe we are in an intermediate bottom. I see three scenarios: 1. Da market keeps droppen off a cliff NOW. I think there's too much optimism for that. A contrairian asks, is the crowd wrong and must determine when the tide changes. In additon you have A.G.'s tax cuts and W's tax cuts comming soon. This time may be different, but most times after rate cuts and tax cuts the market goes higher. 2. The S&P is in a Giant head-and-shoulder's (look at the weekly chart). If that's the case, we're though with the head and need the right shoulder to form. One more rally for the boys before the BIG KAHOONA. If this is the case, the market tanks in June to August. By that time a retroactive tax cut will be in effect with a likely 100 basis drop in interest rates. Now I ask ya, is that the kind of environment that makes stocks drop? Heck no! 3. The third alternative is the one I believe to be the most likely and the most deadly. Look at the weekly chart again and imagine that the big hump is the left side of a giant double top forming. Now we get back to the old highs by year-end 2001 and we don't fall off a cliff until Sept-Oct. 2002. Why is that significant? All the kings horses couldn't put the market back together again. They tried interest rate cuts, they tried tax cuts and they all just proved to be quick fixes that failed before the S&P drops in Oct. 2002 to 1000! Look at all the Republican president's second year and you will find the most previous stock market crashes! (not every republican prez had a crash, but all the most of the historical crashes occurred during the second year of a Republican president watch! I remain 100% long 2X S&P funds.

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (6825)	2/27/2001 9:51:05 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Schaeffer now agrees that THE BOTTOM is still out there. >>> that will be the general consensus at the bottom, nobody will be talking about a 2nd half recovery, most will be extending the downtrend into infinity, like the did on the upside in the nasdaq. soon as the final holdouts are converted and puke up there holdings at the bottom (hear dat cheefy and jt -g-) the bottom will be in.

To: Kapusta Kid who wrote (6825)	2/28/2001 2:26:07 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Very good observation. So far my 'bottom call' on SPX has been called within a day. My SPX TITAN Long play is still up from entry after the close on Wednesday even though SPX has been down 3 of the 4 days i have been in thanks to monday's strong upside. BKX has held up well but still is under BKX 898. BKX closed at BKX 896. We need 2 closes above 898 and tomorrow I would expect the upside break in BKX to this BKX 920 intraday high level...based off A.G speech and this will drag up the SPX... OTHO, A closing break below BKX 860 confirmed with other break of SPX 1,245 and I will run for cover. I have fifteen minutes prior to close to make this decision in rydex. Unfortunately for me in Regular Series I made the switch 1 day too soon from XAU to NDX Long and now I am in the hole 6%+... I been in these holes before with XAU and still booked profit. I will see my profit levels booked in NDX OTC just the same. I feel honored to get all this attention trying to call bottom... lol It really doesn't matter if one gets the exact bottom. What matters is will one see his/her levels and book profits... Best Regards, J.T.