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To: Tony Viola who wrote (12353)2/27/2001 7:53:01 PM
From: ratan lal  Respond to of 17183
 
Greenspan has made numerous mentions of technology aiding productivity tremendously in the past. Now he waits for his end of month numbers to be presented to him, instead of using technology to make available up to the minute reports on what's going on

AG didnt say that tech has increased his productivity or that of the old folks running his ship <ggggg>

As Sidney Poitier said in Guess whos coming to dinner tonight (dont remember teh exact words - paraphrasing ) "Get off our backs. We will never be able to progress till all you old folks are dead and gone".



To: Tony Viola who wrote (12353)2/28/2001 8:26:03 AM
From: GVTucker  Respond to of 17183
 
Tony, RE: Greenspan has made numerous mentions of technology aiding productivity tremendously in the past. Now he waits for his end of month numbers to be presented to him, instead of using technology to make available up to the minute reports on what's going on.

You hint at one of the Fed's dirty secrets--essentially, the quality of their data is horrid.

The major basis for those end of the month numbers comes from phone calls by kids to various businesses with no verification of the accuracy of the verbal data given. Things that can't be done by phone as of the deadline are basically guessed at by the twenty-something year old kid. If the kid does anything other than an extrapolation of past data, he/she's in trouble.

The only time that the data quality is even remotely acceptable is at year end. Of course, at that point, the Fed has to come up with a significant adjustment factor based on the past year's errors. Thus, the only way the current year's data is close to accurate is if the current year contains the same errors as the past year.

You want up to the minute data? Heck, we've got to get quality stuff month to month first. That's one of the big reasons why Greenspan relies so heavily on third party data like NAPM and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence.