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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: prophet_often who wrote (48152)	2/28/2001 1:03:47 AM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 57584

I plan to profit often. Buying oversold dips right before likely rate cuts is just common sense and self-defence. I'll scalp my way upwards from here, selling on rallies and buying on dips. Bottomline, I believe in the gradual recovery of the tech economy. And the market will forecast it long before it actually happens, just as the market is discounting stocks now for the next 3-4 quarters at least. Not buying high-fliers just companies which make crucial products that the continued wireless (and related) revolution will need now selling dirt cheap. We have had four months of tech sell-offs now with only one real relief rally. Another relief rally or series of smaller ones is inevitable. It has gotten to the point where it it is ridiculous to sell some of these stocks especially on down days. And also fool-hardly to short them. I'd say the risk-reward ratio is in the long's favor now, give or take a day or two's fluctuations. I'm counting on about a 15% short-term rally off the current bottoms once the Fed moves. It's not much but it's playable. And almost a sure thing. Capitulation is a very short-term mass state of mind. And it's only a state of mind. Which changes according to price fluctuations. Remember every great crash has been followed by a retracement rally of about 50%. I bought on all the "black" days and that was my only salvation from them. This time it's different. A gradual collapse of tech and telco stocks down to PE's similar to those of conventional industries. Phillip Morris hit a 52-week high today. Real estate is about to plummet unless the Fed acts fast. The cycle feels completed. The bubble is gone. I also take the mass tech downgrades as a sign of the bottom. And I see the trillions in cash on the sidelines as fuel for at least a modest gradual rebound. At least INTC from 29 - 34, NOK from 21 to 25. LU from 12 to 14. VZ from 50 to 57. That sort of thing. Perhaps just an upward correction inside a bear market. Or perhaps the last few months of a sudden rapid bear melt-down with a few lousy quarters to back it. I don't have any predictions beyond this 15% rebound and a imminent Fed cut. Place your bets anyplace you want. And I'm not trying to influence anyone. Just reporting on my thoughts and actions today.