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To: mishedlo who wrote (10944)	2/28/2001 1:37:59 AM
From: pbull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

With the U.S. in recession (according to Jack Welch of GE, who knows one when he sees one), that, by definition, takes most of the rest of the world with it. Why? The U.S. is the largest market for goods and the importer of last resort. That's one reason why our trade deficit is so large. Depression? Depends. How about 3 percent interest rates and financial markets that continue to sag? Yep, could happen. Is that a depression? Don't know. Depends on the definition. There's certainly more than a whiff of deflation out there, so we'll see how Greenspan & Co. address it. After all, they got us into this mess. PB

To: mishedlo who wrote (10944)	2/28/2001 2:59:40 AM
From: pbull	Respond to of 13572

Another point of view: To:CobaltBlue who wrote (72336) From: Earlie Tuesday, Feb 27, 2001 2:08 PM View Replies (5) \| Respond to of 72787 CB: I would bet you that before the end of this year, you will revise your views. I have never seen economic activity implode so quickly nor so violently in 20 years of looking at this stuff. In my view, we are already well entrapped in a deflationary spiral. How the heck do we avoid it at this stage? Best, Earlie

To: mishedlo who wrote (10944)	2/28/2001 3:08:57 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

<What is really absurd to me is retail stocks like kohls KSS selling at PE of 70. Coke KO selling at pe of 60 with 5% growth or something like that. This really makes no sense. They propped up the DOW, as I said, and in the end it will just make it all worse.> Exactly... on the way up plenty of people were saying NASD overvalued at this level... look at the PE's especially in lieu of sideways revenue numbers at some large companies. Then you look at the S&P and DOW like you do above and the market is absurdly fat especially for an economy headed into a recession with all time high leverage under it: downside.com Puts on the Dow or S&P [if quick] look like gifts here to me... BWTFDIK DAK