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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob zagorin who wrote (454)	2/28/2001 4:29:42 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3294

Noted that Avanex received Fujitsu's distinguished partner award (see recent PR), one of 2 out of 2000 suppliers to do so and only non-Japanese. Notable for having worked with Fujitsu only 2 years. That's like crowning yourself king. Fujitsu holds the key patents to AVNX's technology. Any company that relies on one or two customers for over 50% of their revenues is bound to disappoint. Pat

To: bob zagorin who wrote (454)	2/28/2001 11:12:57 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

A few comments based on several conversations I've had over the past couple days with friends who know the company well. All information is public, but perhaps with a little more granularity: * Layoffs were appx. 3/1 Ottawa/San Jose * Ottawa passives were those that go in first when fiber is installed. Carriers can add cards(actives)to increase capacity and that process is still continuing. * Sales of new fiber are at record highs. All major manufacturers are sold out. * What is cycle time between installation and lighting? [This I will find out and welcome comments.] * Customer strength is spotty. For example Ciena is strong, Lucent is weak. NT still in question. Are all problems related to economy or was there a management error that's now hurting them? [Don't have answer.] * Product strength is also spotty. One product line will increase 4X by this time in 2003. * Sales of integrated modules is strong with "healthy backlog." * Transmission modules that run OC-192 are the future. Numbers ramping at huge multiples, Q/Q. Transmission, overall, can't meet all demand. * MicroAmps growing fast, not able to meet demand. [SDL has its own specialty fiber, can beat competition at all levels.] * At 40 gig, there will be higher levels of integration, a complex "elegant" process. Some companies have First Generation now. Others will leap-frog. :) * Still hiring at a brisk rate in many areas; still a shortage of talent. [Check out job listings: jdsuniphase.com (just for USA)] * Company overall is 60/40 actives/passives -- last year the reverse was true. In short, the industry took a breather while capacity was filled and this impacted passives. Actives are still in big demand b/c that's how you light the fiber. Sales of new fiber indicate the next wave will be huge, but the timing from installation to ordering passives involves a lag. Industry insiders welcome the chance to regroup from last year's insane pace. What happened then was unprecedented and couldn't be maintained without some disjoint. We may be between quarters at the SuperBowl, but we're still in the early stages of what promises to be an exciting game. Pat