Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (550)	2/28/2001 10:57:21 AM
From: Don England	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

diana, i have seen something similar but can't recall where. have also seen graphs showing that 6 months after the first easing the mkt. was always up, or some such. don't know how to use historical comparisons here as i fear this is more '29 ish in its ultimate impact. they did have a helluva rally into 30, or so, didn't they? folks that thot they had avoided the bear found it got a second wind and was around behind 'em - ate 'em alive. dipping my toe here, just in case, lightly and with stops. adi, idti, adct. xcar, got your list. thanks much for all the effort. don

To: diana g who wrote (550)	2/28/2001 11:14:22 AM
From: Timelord	Respond to of 23153

diana: Just read that the other day. It probably relates to a market guru from the early 70's named Edson Gould. His forecasts were based on Fed movements, and basically said that three tightenings led to a bear market and vice versa. He apparently gained his success in the bear market of 1973-74, then faded to obscurity when the market changed, and his forecasting methods stopped working. I believe he popularized the phrase "three steps and a stumble", which I've heard used before. Alex

To: diana g who wrote (550)	3/1/2001 3:34:24 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

8 months to effect economy... <Your statement is about the economy, Not the stock market, yes?> I would expect the non-tech market to move before the economy - but I believe that tech will become a laggng sector, and move AFTER the economy improves Since a large part of tech valuation depends on earnings growth (PEG), earnings have to start going up, not down for tech valuation to come back... I think you are right, but most people don't see an end to the decline in profits for tech yet.