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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (32083)	2/28/2001 12:02:31 PM
From: thames_sider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

I suspect that too many people are confusing growth deceleration with "negative growth" Exactly. 1.1% growth is still growth , not recession - even a 'technical' recession requires two quarters of negative growth. [although I'm not sure if these figures are before inflation?]. I haven't noticed how much non-TMT companies are warning on profits - some are, but then some are reporting excellent numbers, which points to few relative problems at least where expectations/valuations aren't predicated on 100%+ growth... Anyhow, I think the Dow should be fairly stable: techs and autos look like hurting, but finance, oils, FMCG and so on look more resilient - against their relatively low 5-10% expectations, anyhow. As for the 'perception of recession', I can't help thinking that such perception was emphasised by a certain political wing last year; both denigrating the performance over 1999-2000, and attempting to lower expectations looking forward to make its own targets easier to hit and/or its performance look better. Plus if a recession was already in effect, then obviously it could have nothing to do with the new government or any reaction to its plans... but if this draws political flak, do reply on Subject 50472 and not here <g>