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To: Earlie who wrote (72984)	2/28/2001 12:50:26 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Respond to of 436258

Yes, if the assets crash sufficiently, IBM's pension income will shrink, and may possible turn back into pension expense. This will take time. Additionally, they are using a 9.5% asset growth rate. So, even if they have small positive returns, pension income will probably still decrease. I will update when the 2000 Annual Report is published.

To: Earlie who wrote (72984)	6/18/2002 9:28:39 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie I have updated my summary and analysis of IBM Pension Expense. There is quite a bit here, and I have played around with some "what if" scenarios. I will present the analysis using several different posts. I have no position in any IBM securities or derivatives (long or short). Mike =============================================== IBM Pension Expense Most figures for 2001 and prior are taken directly from IBM Annual Reports. Some figures had to be estimated or backed into (such as the asset values used to calculate expected return). IMHO, little accuracy has been sacrificed as a result of the estimates. IBM has incurred the following pension expense. Parantheses indicates pension income. All figures are millions of $. 1994 11 1995 (252) 1996 (285) 1997 (420) 1998 (454) 1999 (638) 2000 (896) 2001 (1025) IBM incurred over $1 billion of income from the pension plan in 2001. Since 2000, IBM has been assuming pension assets will appreciate 10% per year. Prior to 2000, IBM assumed either 9.25% or 9.5%.