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To: GST who wrote (118851)2/28/2001 1:12:34 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Gst,

Obviously, it's tough to have a conversation with someone who assumes you are an idiot, but I'll give it a brief shot.

Ag didn't create this, nor did he make my decisions for me. The lesson, for perhaps me only, is that he is fallible, and can make drastic mistakes. At least I consider this a drastic mistake....the final tightening and the lack of aggressive movement in December. I had too much faith in the system and stayed with more speculative ventures for too long, a real no no when the economy tanks. Yes, even I know that, GST.

I think he is now waiting for the consumer to capitulate, just as he waited for the economy to drop all the way to a 1% growth rate. When the consumer capitualates, he will stay in the fox hole for a long while. AG is now risking a Japanese style extended meltdown. I can't claim to understand how to function in that environment so I have bought more value stocks and funds the last month

As for my investment history, I had a 2200% gain in 1999 mainly because of qcom options, after 10 years of 80% compounding returns. My wife went on an amazing shopping spree at the beginning of 2000, which I am now grateful for, we paid off nearly all debt, and we bought several properties and a couple businesses with cash. I retired and sold my practice. I am in exceptional financial health by anyone's definition, and won't have to work again. Even if the market goes to zero. I am 41.

The bad news is that my net worth has dropped by 70%, all because of my decisions in the market. As my net worth exploded year over year, I planned for the meltdown I anticipated: and yet I walked right into it. So I feel that I frittered away a fortune staying at the party too long, which I can live with. It's tougher to see the current prices and not be able to act, much.

I haven't been right about much so you guys may want to buy some March puts...I just bought some March calls in various tech stocks. March calls make good sense to me at these levels. The vix and nas bullish percentage are predicting a pop. We are oversold. The fed may move at any time.

We'll see.