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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (6862)	3/1/2001 3:21:33 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, February 28th 2001 Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 338.1 Millionnear new 52 week low SPX Short- URSA 238.6 Million NDX Long - OTC 1,434 BILLIONnew 52 week low NDX Short- Arktos 80.8 Million XAU Precious Metals 53.7 Millionrising on the pullback Banking 64.6 Million 2.5 month low Biotechnology 418.9 Million Money Market 1,434 BILLIONoversold *************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 84.8 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 18.1 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 130.2 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 23.5 Million ******************************************* Note: These numbers will be verified by trading dept in the morning. Bulls are glad to get out of the month of February. 3rd worst month on record for nasdaq. A humbling experience for Bulls to say the least. Bears call it payback time. Right now with today's closing prices in the broad market - WE ARE IN THE DEATH ZONE. It is that point where Bears have the opportunity to take out significant supports in the last 3 significant lead sled dogs: DOW, SPX and BKX. It has obviously already happened in tech ala COMP, NDX, SOX, IIX NWX et al... The Bulls need to draw the line of support right here and now and mount the counter-tet offensive. On the Bearish extreme, I have heard some calling for a hard break down to DOW 9,200 and SPX 970 sometime in the month of March. That would correspond to BKX below 780. Cycle lows are between now and friday and this is fodder for Bears. The Bulls cling to SPX holding above that SPX 1,233.70 the October 18, 1999 intraday lows. So for me critical support is SPX 1,230. That sucker breaks on the close then SPX 1,160 test (December 15, 16 1998 close) is potentially on deck. DOW 10,320 close must hold. So must BKX 860. If all 3 blow thru supports and more importantly book closes below these levels then the final wash-out is on deck and it will be nasty... Positive divergences in the 5 day rsi levels are emerging. As the market continues to move lower in the DOW, SPX, COMP and BKX et al the relative strength numbers have actually been rising to higher lows in 5 day RSI levels as new lows get booked in the major indices. This is signficant as internal momentum indicators are quietly changing as the mass public is blowing chow and heading for the exit. Rydex numbers confirm this. Moreover, the 21 day rsi levels, the more stringent test, is approaching oversold levels and are converging on the 5 day levels. BULLISH. The next two days is gona be war. It will be ugly and volatile. If the Bulls survive the next two days onslaught, the Bears are dead in the countertrend rally. Rydex... SPX Long NOVA and NDX Long OTC continue to book new 52 week low nmbers in TA. BULLISH Banking TA new 2.5 month low. BULLISH If we get thru the next 2 days avoiding the break below BKX 860 close, we will see BKX 1,000 intraday highs on deck this month. The monthly chart confirms this bullish wedge. BTK Biotech index is Bullish and one of the leaders in COMP. XAU Precious Metals takes a breather today as the late-comers join the party in the last two days and are now in the hole. 5 day RSI still overbought at 73.06. 1 more day consolidation? gold bullion breaks above 272 spot and the sky is the limit on XAU. Spot closed at 267.10 and XAU closed at 52.52 down $1.04. Money Market levels still oversold. COMP 35% below the 200 day MA and this against a backdrop of double oversold 5 day rsi of 20.37 and screaming BULLISH rydex TA as money is begging to get out the door... A move to COMP 2,550 would fill the gap from mid feb breakdown and this would bring it back to the 25 day MA and right above 20% below the 200 day MA. Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.