Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (70764)	2/28/2001 3:42:44 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 99985

Where was MSDW in the '70???? the modern-day business cycle is defined by inflation in the real economy and the willingness of the Fed to do something about it u hit the nail on the head... according to easy Al, inflation does not exist...I don't about u, but have u checked your natural gas bill lately? How do u spell L.U.V...anyway? That leaves me in favor of the U and against the delicious V that most forecasters and investors seem to be banking on. History often has strange ways of repeating itself To answer my own question, first you start with L, once you get past that, than u can go on to U & @ the end V. Regards, Peter

To: High-Tech East who wrote (70764)	2/28/2001 4:22:46 PM
From: Doug	Respond to of 99985

H-T East: Thx for that excellent report. This is a classic case of Keynesians vrs Monetarists. In 1979, the FEDS had switched the controls to Money Supply. In the 80's they switched to Interest rates and then in the 90's used both to prop up the GDP. Using Money Supply it is feasible to create a V recovery . This had been done during the recent Bank crisis. The effect of interest rates is much slower and leads to a slower recovery. In the past the Banks have been forced to take the risk of an expanded money supply. This time Banks have become wiser and are demanding huge risk premuims to lend to faltering establishments e.g LU and XRX etc. The concentration of stocks down are Techs with little debt. However, their clients are all heavily in debt and are unwilling to increase their debt further because it will affect their net earnings. The myth of big economic gains due to superior productivity is no longer an accepted dogma; that mantra is being challenged by CAO/CEO's. In a nutshell, we may see a bottom for the Techs in March/April and a tight trading band till late this year. The recovery for the Techs will come only when the Tech clients , the large debtors e.g WCOM/T etc announce their financial conditions have improved,