To: Dale Baker who wrote (302 ) 3/1/2001 11:34:34 PM From: Sonny Respond to Even sadder is the part where people do follow them, and submit themselves to be herded by them frequently (in the short term). After their large clients are gradually out of the positions, they start an open season on these downgrades! (and load up on bottoms). Its a big game. After all, if the invs. psychology does not improve, every one remains on the sidelines, vary of trying to catch a falling knife! So, they repeat their downgrades - since it has become an easy self-fulfilling prophecy by then, and it can become their easy-road to fame and success! In this scenario then, future-potential etc. blah blah parameters don't matter at all, and an issue can get extremely oversold and remain there for some time! Here, even single digits may be possible for short duration, if this scenario materializes. After all, in the de-ja-vu 1929, stock papers just become some fancy printed papers and none have to have valuations any more than their book values! When every one wants to just dump them regardless and get the hell out of the daily agonies, they go on fire sale! E.g. just look at what happened to IMGN - a big pharma bought their stake a few months ago for 19 and change, and IMGN is selling right now in the 14-15 range! A lucrative deal for even some small visionaries imho, who can look beyond 6 months to a year! Earlier when it was at 42-45 just a few months ago, it was supposed to go thru the roof shortly and there were many open praisers - now, they are just silent, {since IMHO, they are perhaps busy, loading up their boats again, with the ultra-cheap stuff's bounty! :-)}. Other examples: HLIT, COVD, IIH, CPQ, MU ! IMHO: an easy average triple for these issues in the next 12-18 months from these levels! But, are the general masses buying them right now? Hell, no, since they are so cheap right now! ;-) Instead, they are busy buying real estates in central New Jersey right now, when the house prices have already doubled over there, just in the last 4 years and there is a clear peak seen in the sales there! IMHO: its time to sell those overpriced, congested huts over there in NJ and buy these quality stocks! :-)
