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To: pbull who wrote (10987)	2/28/2001 5:42:37 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 13572

Exactly... the focus on the market by the masses is a classic sign of a market top. You know, for years now some very smart people have been saying the market was way overvalued and people were getting carried away backing up their assertions with lots of good data on everything from debt in the economy to speculative turnover as well as the silly valuation argument. One argument used by the bulls over the last 5 years is the demographic argument which while is certainly a factor must be seen for what it is: A modified "greater fool" theory... another classic sign of the bear to anyone who has studied the markets. Another tout is "stocks for the long run" as if prices paid had nothing to do with returns. It's crazy. I'd like to address the demographic argument briefly... you have this 'bulge' of people who are saving for their retirement. Who says it has to go into the stock market?? IMO the fact that all these people are throwing their money around just means it will do just that... fly around looking for return, I see no reason to assume it will just sit in stocks AT ANY PRICE. Lots of people have more money than they ever thought they'd have... you think they'll sit around and watch it rot? Clearly this isn't happening, and we're seeing it now. All the demographic argument means to me is that if something gets hot it will go much further than anyone could dream... like the techs... the key is to get the next hot thing.. keep your eyes open... personally with greenspan pumping like nuts I think there will be flight into inflation hedges at some point. Food for thought: The whole gold industry has a smaller mkt cap than a couple tech stocks with little earnings. DAK