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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (70792)	2/28/2001 6:12:51 PM
From: jmootx	Respond to of 99985

restatement In other words, if my call is correct and this is the bottom then it is indeed a great scenario. There are two very general kinds of money in the market: pension fund money, etc. that tends to be gradual and value oriented and hedge fund money that causes the volatility, makes bets on rumors, etc. (yes, I am over simplifying the preceding to save my hands) Anyhow based on my market analysis the OEX at 642 is an important pivot point for large value oriented money. To have a bottom you must have the most negative possible scenario, and having no earnings visibility will do just that. My friend is an tech inventory options trader and he is seeing levels come down. The Fed rolled back rates and a tax cut is in order. Having no earnings visibility in the face of these three positives is panic (and somewhat affected by new disclosure laws). Of course this quarter will be the worst in a very long time, but that is evident--everyone knows this. Remember I see the next few years be the reverse of the last 5: strong earnings will produce lower PE ratios and more average and sustainable stock appreciation (10%-15%) annualized.