To: GST who wrote (118909 ) 3/1/2001 4:59:41 AM From: H James Morris Respond to of 164684 Gst, didn't I tell you to short the sluts? >2/28/01 5:26 PM ET Merrill Lynch gored the brokerage community this morning, telling investors that the bottom could fall out on first-quarter earnings as investors shy away from trading. "Upcoming broker-dealer earnings results look set to disappoint vs. current Street estimates," wrote analyst Judah Kraushaar in the opening of his note to investors, fittingly called Crunch Time. "Consensus first-quarter and 2001 forecasts may fall near term." He reduced his earnings per share estimates on a handful of companies and named three near-term challenges as major factors in the revision. The first problem is that retail investors have stopped trading, leading to a downturn in revenue created from trading-related fees. Also, private equity results might face more losses while mergers and acquisitions and underwriting fees have dried up as the market grows cold and hostile. Goldman Sachs' (GS:NYSE - news) first-quarter earnings estimate was cut to $1.18 per share from $1.24 per share, while the full year 2001 was dropped to $6 from $6.15. Wall Street currently expects Goldman to make $1.39 a share in the first quarter and $6.29 a share in 2001. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter's (MWD:NYSE - news) first-quarter estimate was cut to 88 cents a share, like the Goldman call, 15% below Wall Street's forecasted $1.02 a share. Kraushaar said that private equity losses and weak commissions would hurt Morgan Stanley but hoped that fixed income markets could help alleviate the pain. He trimmed his 2001 estimate to $4.40 from $4.45 a share. Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE - news) received the lightest slap, with only its first-quarter earnings estimate getting scaled back. Kraushaar dropped the estimate to $1.39 a share from $1.46 a share, lower than the consensus $1.50 a share currently on the books at First Call/Thomson Financial. "Nonetheless, we think that Lehman may be unusually well-positioned for leveraging the revival in fixed income markets as 2001 unfolds," wrote the analyst, who actually upped his 2001 estimates to $6.20 a share from $6.05 a share.