Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bridge Player who wrote (9800)	2/28/2001 9:04:05 PM
From: hobo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

BR, Look at these charts... VXN (based on the NDX) mach.quote.com VIX (Based on the COMPQ) mach.quote.com These represent volatility in the options of the stocks in the above indeces. It also represents the degree of fear in investors (versus complacency). The higher the volatility, the higher the premium on options and the greater the fear of investors. Until they get a higher, the scenario that you are hoping for will not have a high degree of probability. Perhaps the Put/Call Ratio is beginning to get closer to the desired level to expect a change in direction... here is a chart of the ratio: stockcharts.com a couple of explanations of the same: stockcharts.com thestreet.com The above from the "Technical" angle. From the fundamental point of view I see the following potential for problems that will prevent a powerful turn around: 1. Oil prices are regaining ground. 2. Given the Energy situation in California, chances that Natural Gas prices will recede are small. 3. Given the probability of a recession, both companies and individuals are not spending as much as they used to. 4. Once the trend establishes... it takes a great deal of power from buyers and exhaustion by sellers to reverse things... probably, this is why excesses in the markets occur... This has not happen yet. That does not mean that there could be reactions (rallies), that could lift the market... but these will be sold .. . again, and again... until there is a true change of trend. just my opinion