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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gpphantom who wrote (88249)	3/1/2001 9:03:34 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

1969-1982 Bear Market Deja Vu All Over Again ? IBM the highest tech of tech stocks of it's time; lost 75% of it's value & took over 10 years to recover it in the most significant post WWII Bear Market. The 70's & early 1980's - That's not quite the palezoic age now is it ? I think James Cramer has it labeled correctly; it's a secular, not cyclical collapse that we are witnessing in much of tech. Tech stocks & the NAZ only seem cheap when compared to where they've come from. Revalue the NAZ 100 on not the bottom end of the historical valuation multiple of the last decade; just use the median multiple and we "aint" seen nothing yet... I closed all my individual tech shorts & took 1/3rd of my profits & bought some out of the money puts (defining & limiting my downside) on some still high flying high double/triple digit PE stocks. Too many short-term 20-30% DCB's to play hero hero; but those puts give me some huge leverage to a 1650-1800ish NAZ finale if seen. There surely will be some 20-30% tradeable Dead Cat Bounces - as there has been all the way down since NAZ 5100. But trying to trade against the grain into a 3-400 points up, but 5-600 points down grinding bear market is not good risk vs. reward trading if it's even technically possible for even 5% of traders to trade profitably on the long side at all....and it's certainly NOT investable... especially given the still historically high valuation multiples. Amazing isn't it.... just mere weeks & months ago anyone here even speaking of a sub 2000 NAZ let alone 1500, 1650, 1800 - was attacked & chastised; but now - the madness of crowds is slowly accepting reality. God help 'em if they panic (VBG)~ Another thought; if TA ever has proven itself as nothing more than "just another ancillary" tool; it's right here & right now in tech. There's a great article out there talking about CNBC & Tom Costello doing his "walking the wall" daily NAZ report & his calling for a "TECH BOTTOM" - if Cisco would breach $50, then $45, then $40, then $35, then $30... How many times has Dick Arms been trotted out & how many times has the ARMS index, the TRIN, the VIX called a NAZ bottom ? How many bottoms has Ralph Bloch, Abby J C, Joe Battapaglia & Tom Galvin now called ? I guess if Slick Willie can play hide the Cohiba with a 19 year old intern & wag his finger in our face on National TV with a straight face; why shouldn't Joey Batt's ? How many different indicators have been calling THE BOTTOM since Sept & NAZ 3500 ? Investor sentiment remained at near 61% bullish as of a few days ago - directly into this collapse in tech earnings, lack of visibility & guidance and perhaps most importantly; having Alan Greenpimp throwing a 100bp Fed Cut Party & no one came... I think the prescient exit of Julian Robertson and Soros & Druckenmiller closing their fund, the exodus of Shopkorn; Buffets refusal to partake of Tech & his massive Silver buy along with the recent "walk away from this market" by Vinnik & James Cramer will be a chapter covered in the future by all business schools. Bubbles have historically ended badly, ugly & much, much lower than nearly everyone & anyone expected. And most importantly; they ALLWAYS have ended with a final clear & recognizable "CAPITULATION" phase & in case no one has noticed - a 61% positive sentiment reading from investors is one helluva long way from capitulation ! Buckle Up & Grab some Gold Stocks while the grabbing's good ~ and as far as the Oils; imho - it's no time to try to be a hero... laggards & late cycle plays are the path; but using tight stops & selling into any & all significant rallies and then patiently waiting for pullbacks to re-enter is the way to still scalp some nice gains after all the "Big & Easy Money" - has allready been made. Valuations in the OSX aren't cheap - while their earnings upside exceeds that of the E&P's; as they allways do late in the cycle - they aren't cheap and take a look at how RIG's earnings accelerated simultaneous to it's shareprice collapse at the end of the cycle in 97-98. These stocks disconnect from the fundamentals in late cycle & this is NOT a flight to safety haven during a significant, or prolonged economic slowdown & certainly not during an accelerated collapse in the broad market. Never has - Pigs get Fat, but Hogs get Slaughtered; or Beat the crowd to the party; but never still be around for last call - meant more... Contrarians make the most money at peak cycle in cyclical sector and more money is lost (and given back) at the quick & violent turn of the intial downward slope of a cyclical cycle than at any other phase. Exiting early isn't just how one makes the Big & Easy money in a cyclical sector - it's often the ONLY way ones makes ANY money in a cyclical sector. PS: the next "Big & Easy Money" play within the Oilpatch is going to be on the short side & it's going to be much, much sooner than most think... Holding just 25% in Oils here - RIG PGO & NR and a few April/May calls - but, it's all for sale - all day, every day... and I'd just as soon turn on a dime short here; as buy the next dip fwiw as yes; RIG should & could see $60 in the next 60 days & $80+ peak cycle; but a slowing US Economy & any further downward acceleration in the broad market is going to take the OSX & E&P's along with them. There is one hell of a lot of profits sitting here in the Oilpatch & the Pro's will NOT be doubling down - they'll be dumping & cashing in. Let $4.75 be broken in gas, or $25 in Crude and you'll see a momenteum shift in the commodity pits as well and a new $18-$25 band for Oil & $3.50-$4.75 for Nat Gas is NOT what new highs in the OSX is made of...and there will be better places to put money to work than the oilpatch; especially given the "when, not if" outflows back to tech; and that will take its toll on the Oils. The best we can hope for in the Oils; is for the Fed & the ESF/PPT to keep the dike plugged here & for some event to trigger a spike in Oil and one last momenteum money rotation into the Oils... Unless the economy turns & turns up soon & significantly - I see no possible scenario for the OSX to even dream of cracking 150... and as many of us have taken profits, if not exited at OSX 130-135 of late... that's not a helluva lots of upside to 150... it's time to flip the sign on the Oilpatch Bus once again to: IT'S THE ECONOMY - STUPID ~ Ciao ~ and be carefull out there ...and remember: The best offense is often a good defense ~ ... got gold ?