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To: kas1 who wrote (1399)	3/1/2001 12:14:14 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12410

OT Hi kas, I'm not familiar with Aumann. I musta misread your earlier post. I'm in a very cynical phase right now regarding the market. I regard this as approaching wisdom. I think there's a lot of money to be made by manipulating the crowd with their "common knowledge", which so often is common delusion or common disinformation. Certainly there's a case to be made that common knowledge and common sense are very poorly correlated. Don't know David Lewis either. Now, Michael Lewis, OTOH, did a brilliant job of embarassing Arthur Leavitt in his NY Times Magazine article last Sunday. BTW, I went to a school to the SE of Madison as well, uptown. I went to Loyola-Chicago for a semester. Did you get to meet Freidman when you were in town? He's one of my favorites. I'm particularly partial to his notion of replacing the FRB with a PC. As for Mr Market, I'm not even noticing. From my reading of market history, this is very much akin to the market of 1974. There will be a secular rally starting in the fall. But lots of bargains created between now and then. Too early to go long, too risky to go short. So, I'm with you on paying attention to Mr. Market's thrashings. Head buried in sand, or rather, in Santayana's Sense of Beauty. I do believe I am thusly maximizing my utility. I prefer creating ikebana to reading theories of beauty. My sense is guided by the words of Duke Ellington. He spoke of music, but this is universal: "If it sounds good, it is good." OTOH, Wagner is better than he sounds. Best, Ray :)