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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (1557)	3/1/2001 9:11:45 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

MAR 1 INDEX UPDATE -------------------------------- DOW - midrange SPX - midrange OEX - midrange NAZ - oversold, borderline CLASS 2 BUYs NDX - oversold, borderline CLASS 2 BUYs VIX - 31.00, midrange(inverse) VNX - 75.63, overbought(inverse), SHOOTING STAR It would still take 1-2 down days before my short-term technicals would ring a CLASS 1 BUY signal on the NAZ/NDX, so there is still more potential downside room. Dont get me wrong, Im not bullish for the indicies but I do feel that many HiTECH stocks have hit bottom or are within say 10% of their bottom. Unfortunately there are still some big stocks with high P/E's, and due to their weighting on the indices could bring the NAZ/NDX significantly lower if/when they pullback more. Also the BTK has held up much better than the NDX, but if that was also to sell off, that would also add significant downward pressure to the NDX. Yesterday the NDX got as low as 1880 which is close enough to the 1850 support area I have been mentioning in the past. Unfortunately the NDX has a good chance of breaking this support line somewhere in the future and the next strong support area is in the 1400-1500 region. It sounds awful, but thats only about 400 points away, and if those higher P/E's stocks/BTK cant hold their ground then 1400-1500 is not so crazy. If the 1400-1500 region doesnt hold, then the next strong support is at 1063, which was the OCT 1998 LOW, of course with lesser supports in between. For now, lets not go there until the NDX gets closer to 1400-1500. Saying all this bearish stuff, lets put it into perspective, the NDX is DEFINITELY closer to the bottom than the top. The NDX cant go to ZERO, theoretically it could if the SUN explodes or the world gets anihilated, and the high was near 5000. For the short-term trader who is attempting to hist the market within 25-50 points, that doesnt mean much, and for the day-trader looking for 25 cents, that doesnt mean anything, but for the long/longer-term investor with multiyear time horizon, this is starting to become a buying opportunity for quite a few stocks, not all and Im not saying that they will bounce/rally strongly or immediately. For the short term, the NDX/NAZ is nearing a short-term bottom within 1-2 days, but if the 1850 region does not hold during this specific timeframe, this short-term bottom could end up significantly lower than expected. For now I am holding onto the position that the 1850 region should hold before a short-term bounce, but will add that I aint completely confident with that position.