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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (48252)	3/1/2001 10:45:00 AM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Exactly, exactly, exactly. So exact that a lurker like me must comment. All these comparisons to Japan, or even to the U.S circa 1929 are laughable. The U.S. today is the only superpower, is creating most of the new technology, is the envy of the world, and flat out calls the shots. We have the wherewithal to rectify mistakes, if one believes Greenspan cut to deep, or speculators inflated the bubble, whatever.Look at the S@L debacle, nowthat was a huge financial problem which we shrugged off fairly quickly. There are many like examples. Jay chen's wall of worry is real, but there is always a wall of worry, the point being is it insurmountable. I like you Randy think not.

To: Rande Is who wrote (48252)	3/1/2001 11:04:47 AM
From: The Flying Crane	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

>>" they will buy up the bargains [which I believe has already begun],<< I doubt there will be any significant buying when economic data do not support a positive outlook in the near future. >>"start the HYPE MACHINE rolling again and begin flooding the market with upgrades,"<< As you have already so stated many times, these upgrades during the last few years have burned quite a few people, who will believe these "upgrades" in the face of economic woes with companies laying off people and dot.com going under? In fact, it was the proliferation of the dot.com the last several years that fueled the demand for internet infrastructure products. With the realization that most dot.com won't make it, who is going to generate the demand for these internet infrastructure products? >>"stories of fantastic technologies, opportunity, hope...<< Only if it pertains to new disruptive technologies that have not been effectively utilized by our modern society yet. >" and the most important of them all. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Initial Public Offerings."<< IPO in this time of year???? Naah........! I also do not subscribe to the extreme view of the doom and gloom; but I do believe that we haven't finished correcting yet either. There are still 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter earning reports coming soon. If bad earnings continued to come out during these future quarters, where do you think price will be heading? IMHO, some of the big caps favorite may be seeing "teens" as a result of the many stock splits during the heydays. So, I wouldn't try to use the "teens" to determine bottom. I'll wait until the bottom is established by new signs of higher lows, and higher highs. Until then, I'll play the song of "preservation of capital" and apply caution. After all, staying on the sideline is also a very valid and powerful trading/investing strategy in time of economic uncertainty. Best Regards. FC Warning: the above contains broken clock prediction. The truth is that NO ONE really know what the true time is. It may be dark outside, but are we expecting a sunrise coming up or are we going into the night? No one will know for now....

To: Rande Is who wrote (48252)	3/1/2001 10:36:14 PM
From: Street Hawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

"But my bet is that Wall Street is too greedy to allow that scenario to happen. When they have completed milking the Individual Investor [who became overconfident and fat] for all they can reasonably get. . . they will buy up the bargains [which I believe has already begun], start the HYPE MACHINE rolling again and begin flooding the market with upgrades, stories of fantastic technologies, opportunity, hope and the most important of them all. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Initial Public Offerings. That's where the real money is made on Wall Street." I have to disagree strongly with those conspiracy theories. Not only are there VERY few bargains(CSCO,ORCL,etc. are NOT a bargain), the Hype Machine doesn't work very well anymore. Its hard to gloss over huge profit warnings with STRONG BUY!!! recommendations. The public is stupid, but not that stupid. I see that you are very bullish, and at these levels, there could be a bounce up to 2500, which I'm sure could be gamed if you are willing to take the risk of the Nasdaq going down to 1500. Right now, I'm short-term neutral on the market, but long-term, very bearish. Its going to be a biatch for the individual investor who's clinging on to tech stock pipe dreams.