Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (42865)	3/1/2001 4:00:15 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Nice bounce at support, again. Every time we bounce at around 40, it looks like stronger support. OTOH, every time we stall at 50, it looks like stronger resistance. I thought very hard about going long AMAT (stock, not LEAPs) today, at 40. Instead, I decided to buy some TXN calls (2003 30s = at-the-money longest-term LEAPs). I think the chips will rally before the chip-equips (makes sense, chips have to see firmer demand before they stop cutting capex). My short-term timing has been horrible lately. Went long EMC, and within 3 days they had warned, and gapped down twice at the open. Covered my AMAT short, because they were showing so much relative strength compared to the other techs, and they promptly drop to the bottom of the channel. There are encouraging signs for the overall economy very recently. Although consumer sentiment is very bad, they are still buying, better than expected numbers for such things as cars and houses. OTOH, news from chips, and everything made mainly out of chips, continues very bad. No upturn in sight, as far as chip inventories are concerned. OTOH (how many hands is that, 3 so far?) once the overall economy has bottomed, I think it can't be more than a quarter, 2 at most, before tech follows. For the moment, I'm betting that tech hasn't bottomed, we may have another January-type rally, and THEN get the bottom for techs, sometime around the summer. re "Is there anyone left?" After they've all warned once, they can start again at the top of the list, and begin a second round. Some have already warned 3 times. Still waiting for 35 on AMAT. Got close today, but the close above 40 means we are still in the 40-50 channel. Volume, however, did not pick up when we dipped below 40.