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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sawtooth who wrote (94947)	3/1/2001 12:18:53 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 152472

Actually Saw, I think with the adjusted market outlook, the $50's is where QCOM should be in terms of fair value. I think this because it should be given a significant premium PE because of its potential an possible dominant telecom status. But it is perceptions that determine price and at the moment, those are really cloudy (outside of the thread). So chart/market movement wise I think low 40's is a very strong possibility. Would I buy there? No. I would wait to see if that price held. If we have a classic panic selloff, the 30's would arrive in a heartbeat. Regardless, we have a HUGE overhead resistance to deal with now. Much greater now with the market the way it is. ANY rally will most likely bring cheers here...but will bring sell signals to most everyone else. It will be a very long haul out of these blues. God, it hurts to think this way. Rick

To: Sawtooth who wrote (94947)	3/1/2001 12:31:44 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 152472

First Union Securities Covers QCOM First Union Securities Inc. 03/01/01 08:31 AM Source: News.com URL: cnetinvestor.com Morning Notes: Visit the CNET Brokerage Center for daily reports from the top Wall Street analysts. QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM-NASDAQ) Company Note Upbeat Analyst Meeting Confirms Our View--Strong Buy Rating Rating: 1 Price: $54.81 52-Wk. Rng.: $163-50 Shares Out.: (MM) 747.7 Market Cap.: (MM) 40,978.8 Key Points Yesterday at its annual analyst meeting in San Diego, QUALCOMM indicated that visibility of the March (FQ2 2001) quarter is high and that ASIC shipments are still expected to be a capacity-constrained 16 million units. The company also indicated good early indications of sequential revenue and earnings growth for the June quarter (FQ3 2001). The company appears well on its way to having a complete family of chips for all modes of 3G CDMA, including 1X, 1X-EV, and W-CDMA. All reports indicate CDMA2000 1x is working well and delivering data rates in excess of 100 kbps. This is in contrast to reports of issues surrounding other technologies. We reiterate our Strong Buy rating on the shares. We believe positive catalysts remain on the horizon, including potential of CDMA in China, of Nextel and certain Latin American carriers migrating to cdma2000 1X (see our note of February 22, 2001). Our $90 target price is based on our long-term CAPM. Company Description Qualcomm Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, licenses, and operates digital wireless communications, infrastructure, and subscriber products, designs, and services. Details Yesterday QUALCOMM hosted its annual analyst meeting in San Diego. Contrary to recent reports by other companies in the industry, the QUALCOMM presentation was one of conservative confidence. Management indicated its comfort with current consensus estimates for the March quarter. Our F2Q™01 revenue and EPS estimates are $698 million and $0.29, respectively. For the quarter, the company expects to ship 16 million chips, which is in line with previous guidance and capped due to capacity issues. Management suggested the company has good early indications of sequential revenue and earnings growth for the June quarter. Many investors are probably wondering how QUALCOMM is apparently bucking the trend of other industry suppliers. We suspect that higher-than-anticipated chip volumes are being driven through SK Telecom. Currently SK is constrained by governmental decree to reign in its mobile subscriber market share to 50%. However, that constraint is slated for removal in June. We would not be surprised if SK were to begin aggressively marketing its 1X network at that time and to see 1X handset volume climb significantly. The company appears well on its way to having a complete family of chips for all 3G modes. Newer baseband products include the MSM 3000 (IS-95); MSM 5000, 5100 and 5105 (cdma2000 1X); MSM 4500 and 5500 (1X-EV); MSM5200 (GSM / W-CDMA); and, MSM 6xxx (multimode 1X, 1X-EV and W-CDMA). We are increasingly confident that the company has a significant time-to-market advantage for baseband chips, even for W-CDMA, which makes us wonder if haven™t been to conservative in our assumption in our models of the company™s chipset marketshare. We reiterate our Strong Buy rating on the shares. We believe positive catalysts remain on the horizon, including potential of CDMA in China, of Nextel and certain Latin American carriers migrating to cdma 2000 1X (see our note of February 22, 2001). We still think that it likely that carriers might reassess their commitments to W-CDMA and even GPRS, given the increasingly obvious performance disparity between those technologies and 1X. We would use the recent price weakness as a buying opportunity. Additional Information Available Upon Request First Union Securities, Inc. maintains a market in the common stock of QCOM. The (an) author(s) of this note/report has(have) a long position in the securities of QCOM. This is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments mentioned. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity they deal with, or the entity that has distributed this report to them. The information has been obtained or derived from sources believed by us to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this information constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. First Union Securities, Inc. (icFUSIle), or its affiliates may provide advice or may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. FUSI is a subsidiary of First Union Corporation and is a member of the NYSE, NASD and SIPC. Copyright © 2001 First Union Securities, Inc. FUSI is a separate and distinct entity from its affiliated banks and thrifts. Ö¿Ö

To: Sawtooth who wrote (94947)	3/1/2001 1:01:55 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Always a good question, Rick. I'm curious as to your calc of a reasonable value for Qcom? I prefer to think of it in terms of how much is the company potentially worth. What were the largest marketcaps at the height of last years buying hysteria for the likes of NT CSCO MSFT etc? Take that number, divide it by QCOM's outstanding, at that'll probably be reasonable if rather optimistic ceiling on QCOM's price. Then it comes down to how long -if ever - until you think QCOM approaches that valuation, and if it is worth it for you to wait that long. From memory I'm coming up with ~500B/750M, or (2/3)*1000 = $650/share. But last year's hysteria was probably a once-in-a-generation event, so discount it by 50% and you get $325/share. So over the next 5 years QCOM is a potential 6-bagger from today's prices... Not bad, if you believe QCOM is capable of fulfilling its potential.