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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Robert Rose who wrote (118981)3/1/2001 1:37:36 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
if bozo was so darn smart or connected then he wouldn't be in this situation. amzn is the definition of typical malinvestment that occurs during bubbles. give money to folks that don't know what to do with it.



To: Robert Rose who wrote (118981)3/1/2001 2:38:17 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
the big prob as i see it is a company with 6 enormous distro centers stuffed with stuff they can't sell, or at least not at all profitably.



Rob,

You are hitting the nail on the head. The problem with the company was management. They had everything going for them such as connections and thus alliances with other firms. However, management did not believe in hiring experienced retailers.

I am going to move on but I wlll make a brief lists of problems:

1. Rob's comments about a bad inventory mix which in my opinion, should have had a merhcandise write down at the end of Q4 2000. Amazon was taking a charge for closing a distribution center and layoffs and wanted to keep bad news to a minimum.

2. Excessive distribution capacity with ten year leases that Amazon cannot afford to pay.

3. Management continues to not have experienced retailers at the helm.

4. Working capital will be begative by Q3 2001. Vendors do not supply with decent terms to firms with negative working capital. It has been stated that vendors comments are they are supplying Amazon now and are being paid well now. That will change as soon as working capital turns negative.

5. Stricter vendor terms will eat the balance of cash.

6. Retail consumer purchasing is growing but for Amazon it is not nearly the growth as predicted. This is blamed on the economy. It can't be both ways. Amazon is losing on-line market share to new entrants to on-lne selling using dual channel.

7. Pure play e-tailers have all just about failed but competition is not decreasing. Competition is increasing from dual channel firms. See number 6 above.

8. The only product line that is showing growth is electronics with almost zero margins after shipping.

9. Marketing efforts have all but about dissappeard to conserve cash. This is the kiss of death for a retailer.

10. Cash will be insuffcient to pay vendors after Q4 2001.

The above brief points are facts not opinions.

Glenn