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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (741)	3/1/2001 6:45:26 PM
From: Jane4IceCream	Respond to of 23153

KB, You have to be nimble AND quick. Its a starter position for me and I plan to avg down if the opp presents itself. Jane

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (741)	3/1/2001 7:26:47 PM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

YOur message is almost unneeded, Kbull. I believe that this many people don't show up if there isn't a clear attraction. We aren't about "poitical" anything, just a touch of respect for another's opinion if not couched in venom. This thread WILL lose its Hot Subject status. That's fine and welcome. After all it isn't a victory dancehall it's a place to congregate, not make war. We're here PRECISELY BECAUSE some non-entity on SD couln't handle disagreement. To acknowledge their infantile plaintives is to give them credence.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (741)	3/1/2001 7:46:12 PM
From: Don England	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

k.b., this is absolutely YOUR FAULT, allowing all of us to become the fodder for common gossips. if you had just named us the 'namby pamby wuss' thread from the getgo we wouldn't be at the top of anyone's list, wouldn't have any honor to defend, and wouldn't feel defensive. i am going to bed and pulling the covers up over my head immediately. kasriel is someone who does have his head screwed on correctly, insofar as i can tell. he makes an oddly contrarian point in one of his latest commentaries. i post the comment below, and the link to the entire article, too. Chairman Greenspan might not find the monetary aggregates a useful guide to monetary policy, but I sure find them a useful guide to the future behavior of the economy. And because I find the monetary aggregates a useful guide to the future behavior of the economy, I find them a useful guide to the future behavior of the Fed. Back in May of last year, after the Fed had just raised the funds rate by 50 basis points, the consensus was that the Fed had a whole lot more rate hiking to do over the remainder of the year in order to slow down the economy's pace. But the behavior of the real M2 money supply back in May suggested that a slowdown in the growth of economic activity was imminent without further rate hikes. In fact, the behavior of real M2 suggested that a slower pace of economic activity was imminent even before the 50 basis point rate hike on May 16. Interestingly enough, some of the same houses that were forecasting considerably higher fed funds rates after the May 16 rate hike are now forecasting considerably lower fed funds rates even after a presumed 50 basis point cut on March 20. (By the way, Wayne Angell revised today his probabilities for an intermeeting rate cut down to something approaching zero. So, he's gone from 40% probability last Thursday to 80% on Tuesday to almost zero today. But you have to admit, as his boss said under oath in court of law, Wayne's quite an entertainer!) Yet the recent behavior of real M2 growth suggests that a rebound in economic growth is imminent. But don't take my word for it, look at the facts presented in the chart below. Year-over-year real M2 growth does a pretty good job of anticipating trend changes in domestic final demand growth. Each time M2 growth soars or collapses, the Fed and the Street gurus explain it away - a change in opportunity costs or flight to liquidity. And most times the Fed and the Street get it wrong. Let's hope the Fed and the Street keep ignoring M2's message so you and I can add to our own M2 by taking advantage of their mistakes. northerntrust.com don p.s. i have decided to stay up; it's a lot more fun. i have to add that it makes my skin crawl and i go all squishy inside when hector says such bullish things! <post no. 745> (is same sex flirting politically correct? actually, i used to get a real kick out of flirting with gay co-workers ((psych nurses do have an enlarged view of the universe)) - now you can cross me off your xmas list) p.p.s. don't call the guatemalan cab co. i ain't dissing nobody!

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (741)	3/1/2001 9:03:16 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 23153

I just thought I might put in my 2 centimes RE tech stocks. Never since I saw my fraternity brothers in college swindled by an encyclopedia salesman have I been so astonished as I have been to see otherwise sensible people looking for "bargains" in these fallen stocks. The same thing happened in 1930-31--only then it was Dow stocks. A lot of people lost a great deal of money trying to grab "bargains." OK, that's all. I will only say it once.