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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3199)	3/1/2001 9:58:02 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

Brian, Which Math is correct???? Column 1 calls for Q4 orders to be close to double Q1 orders and near a $2B runrate. Even Column 2 calls for Q4 orders to approach $400m and a $1.6B runrate. One thing that surprised me was the $43M of cancelled orders probably resulting primarily from the pushout of 1 200mm fab and 1 300mm fab. This seems to imply that NVLS gets less than $25M business per fab. Yet PRIA is expecting about $75M to $100M business per 300mm fab: 3 to 4 times as much as NVLS. And PRIA has a larger market share for its niche than NVLS does for its products. I must be missing something????? This doesn't seem logical. Can you or anyone else shed some light? Thanks Ian. $43M CANCELLED ORDERS INCLUDED EXCLUDED Q1 $240M 283M Q2FLAT 240M 283M Q3&Q4 820M 734M TOTAL $1.3B 1.3B