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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave who wrote (56417)	3/1/2001 7:41:34 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Dave, You make a good point. Bubbles bursting can have long lasting ramifications. However, I disagree with your comment that the US bubble was worse than Japan's. Japan is a different animal all together. The following article discusses this and lists a couple of reasons why the US is in better shape than Japan was following that downfall. Also, the Nikkei topped out at about 40,000 and it took 3 years for it to bottom out at 12,500 or so (about where it is now). If the Nasdaq does the same thing, it would fall to 1500. Hey, we're almost there already! Then, the Nasdaq itself would be stuck in a rut for the next decade or more (if it follows the Nikkei). If that happens, you would need to look for good companies that can continue growth and market dominance. Those companies would reward investors even if the major index levels were range bound, IMO. With that said, comparing the US to Japan is not apples to apples, IMO. -------- JAPAN STILL SUFFERING EFFECTS OF THEIR 1990 BUBBLE BURST TOKYO All summer the stock market set records. Growth had been so robust that experts said we were witnessing the birth of a new and better economy. America in 1999? No, Japan in '89. Newly-rich brokers and bankers sipped green tea instead of cappuccino, but in many ways, the scene in Tokyo back then was eerily similar to New York today. In 1989, Japan was enjoying a prolonged bull market. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average soared toward 40,000, doubling in three years. Investors seemed to believe the good times would never end. But then Japan showed that even great wealth can disappear in a flash. The Japanese stock market lost one-third of its value in the first three months of 1990, and it would be two more years before it hit bottom. In some parts of Tokyo, real estate prices plunged 70 percent. The collapse wiped out $7.9 trillion worth of business capital and household wealth between 1990 and 1996. The magnitude of the collapse was astounding, but more troubling for many has been how long it has lingered. Ten years after the "bubble economy" began to deflate, Kazuhide Furukawa is one of many Japanese forced to put life on hold because of bad economic times. He lost his job as a political aide more than a year ago and has been looking for work ever since. "I thought I was going to be OK," he says. "Then I realized there are hardly any jobs that pay enough for me to keep my living standard." After stumbling along at an average growth rate of just over 1 percent a year between 1992 and 1996, Japan's economy sank into a recession that lasted more than a year. The economy has shown surprising signs of life this year. But while the worst may be over, economists say a full recovery could still be years off. Many people worry that the United States may also have a Japanese- style "bubble economy." But there are some good reasons to believe Japan's experience won't be repeated here. Japan's bubble expanded as investors used paper profits on stocks to make increasingly large bets in the market. Even big companies joined in, generating corporate revenues through market speculation instead of by selling products - something that, for the most part, hasn't happened in the United States. And while many U.S. firms have continued to focus on restructuring and cost-cutting during the good times, many Japanese companies did not. That failure made them vulnerable when the downturn came. library.northernlight.com.