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To: veliny who wrote (6846)3/1/2001 7:19:48 PM
From: veliny  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14101
 
Provalis released their 6mth results to Dec 31 2000. Here is the link.

ukinvest.uk-wire.com

Some excerpts...

"Pennsaid is a significant opportunity for Provalis and was acquired in the face of competition from major UK pharmaceutical companies. Interest in the product has been high and it will be launched in March 2001, although the sales impact will not be seen until the next financial year"

"This[Healthcare]Division is undergoing a period of significant investment with a major increase in the sales force to 42 (up from 29 in 2000 and 16 in 1999)resentatives and additional marketing staff, in readiness for the
introduction of Pennsaid - a new topical anti-inflammatory product for treatment of osteoarthritis. Launch in the UK is scheduled for March 2001."

"The product is expected to make an important contribution to the Division's turnover. The product is an effective topical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory treatment that significantly reduces systemic side effects. It enters a
significant therapeutic market segment in the UK worth some £200m per year which is generally dissatisfied with current treatment and sees a great deal of product switching. The Board believes Pennsaid is a product which will compete successfully in this market."

"The expansion of the sales force will result in increased overhead costs in the next six months, but the expected benefit of increased contribution from both Pennsaid and the established product range should justify this
investment."

No mention of terms - upfront payments or royalty fees where given since the agreement was signed after Dec 31 2000.



To: veliny who wrote (6846)3/1/2001 7:27:12 PM
From: Joe Krupa  Respond to of 14101
 
Thanks for you kind words Veliny.

If you don't mind, I will defer to Cal Gary on the Accum/Dist question. I know it's one of his favourite indicators and he probably knows more about it than I.

Over to you Cal . . .

joe



To: veliny who wrote (6846)3/2/2001 12:41:49 PM
From: Cal Gary  Respond to of 14101
 
Hi V

I had to re-read my comments. Sorry to misinform.

The accum/dist figures is not an indicator on institutional buying.

My point is TA is the art of measuring accumulation and distribution which happens every day in DMX. So long as there are more accum than distribution then, of course, I am a buyer and hopefully reflected in the share price shortly thereafter. Upon early detection that distribution is more than accum, then I sell or short, in general. There are times when FA positives are so overwhelming, like in DMX's case, despite short term indications that its a sell, I just hold and try to switch funds around to buy more. When its way too obvious that short term down is going to happen, I sell some and buy even more shares back. But there's just not enough volume to execute this strategy with great consistancy.

For example , looking at daily trades, house buying /selling, the indicators on weekly, daily, and hourly charts offer different degrees of TA accum/distribution. So depending if you are a day trader, trader, swing trader, position trader, or LT you would use your own method that works best for the time frame and what it is you want to accomplish.

So to measure which institution is buying or selling is another form of TA. Using house positions is merely a good guess that a fund is buying or selling, like TD dumping in dec. The only real way to collect institutional ownership is to get a hold of the shareholder's list or do a comprehensive search of every fund's portfolio and add up all occurance of DMX. So its a matter of trade off, do you got time to drill down vs. just get a good snap shot from an indicator on the chart?

OF course there is a lot of guess work and pattern fitting in TA, but it is necessary to set up a frame work to hang your trade decision upon.