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To: rogermci® who wrote (6675)3/1/2001 9:23:25 PM
From: GregS  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19633
 
Roger,

I don't get the ORCL selloff either, based on the P/E of less than 16 and a stock that has been cut nearly in half since January, it just doesn't make much sense.

Of course, the reaction to the AMCC warning surprised me too, as that stock still carries a very healthy pro-forma P/E, and is now experiencing declining revenue.

I don't trade either stock, and don't plan to anytime soon. AMCC looked to me like a massive short squeeze, and since everyone had their eye on it, the rest of the market went along for the ride.

I'm sure hope we get the same out of ORCL tomorrow, but kind of doubt it, would'nt think ORCL has the same short interest as AMCC, BWDIK.

If I were an Oracle fan, I think I'd be a buyer tomorrow.



To: rogermci® who wrote (6675)3/1/2001 9:57:38 PM
From: Tom Hua  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19633
 
Roger, the market in the last 3 years is anything but rational. It went from irrational exuberance to irrational panic. People are running for the exit now for the same wrong reason that they were jumping into the bubble exactly a year ago. One guy does it and everybody follows suit. From fear of missing the easiest free money to fear of losing the little that's left. That said, I think the ORCL no biggie news will not impact the market tomorrow when the pros step in.

Regards,

Tom



To: rogermci® who wrote (6675)3/1/2001 10:20:00 PM
From: Street Hawk  Respond to of 19633
 
ORCL has actually fared better than most other big cap techs over the past 3 months. I think there were still too many funds who believed in the stock, thus it still had downside. There are a lot of other techs that are much more beaten down than ORCL.

I do believe we are in a new trading era, although the Nasdaq might squeeze a bit from here, I don't see any sustainable rallies or bottoms. The relatively high level of bullishness, retro thinking that prices in 2000 can be reached again in the near future, the sheep thinking that prices are cheap since they are 80,90,95% off the highs made in early 2000, etc. Most techs are still heavily overvalued, and there are still too many clowns trumpeting bottoms and 2nd half recovery gibberish.

BTW, how can these analysts or CEOs predict a recovery later this year when most are saying that they have ZERO visibility? That's not logical.