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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: KymarFye who wrote (70952)3/1/2001 9:03:08 PM
From: el paradisio  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
A time,we may never see again.....

Welcome back to reality
Economy-on-the-brink rattles new money
By Shawn Langlois, CBS.MarketWatch.com

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- In the immortal words of a man who probably didn't
give much thought to being laid off: "The times, they are a-changin'."
Bob Dylan's transcendent lyric smacks of understatement in the New
Millennium's version of Silicon Valley.
I can still vividly remember when it all got out of hand just a few short
years ago. The audaciously wealthy stars had been aligning for the better
part of a decade -- booming real estate, fancy cars caught in gridlock, high
tech buildings multiplying like randy bunnies, etc.

But, being an oblivious young buck, I hardly took notice. For me, life had
remained a complacent status quo.
Then it all changed ... in a hurry.
Rags to riches
My wife (girlfriend at the time) came home one day and said, "we're going to
St. John" on Oracle's tab. Wow ... business must be good. A few months
later: "we're going to Ixtapa!" -- again, thank you, Mr. Ellison ... hmm,
business must be great!
Drinking, shmoozing, dancing, stuffing our face -- a life of new money
gluttony had begun.
And then, right before yet another Oracle-sponsored trip -- this time, Gay
Paris -- my dearly betrothed came home with a cat-swallowed-canary grin and
the promise of a fatter paycheck from elsewhere ... a much fatter paycheck.
Well, pin the tail on this here donkey -- we're darn near rich! Europe can
wait!
At that point in time, the two of us were still wet-behind-the-ears ...
convinced that we had no business whatsoever pulling in that kind of green.
And we weren't alone.
The gaudy ascent of my relatives' wealth meter became more and more
apparent. Our modest family tree started to blossom with millionaires on
every limb. All of a sudden, family functions that previously consisted of
Budweiser and sports talk, turned into Dom Perignon and discourse on the
future of fiber optics in the Information Age.
Aunt: (Sip) "Did you happen to catch Maria Bartiromo's tragic haircut this
morning, dahling?"
Uncle: "She could make a Mohawk look chic, Lovey." (Country club guffaw)
"How 'bout those Cisco earnings ... perhaps we'll finally be able to afford
that pesky GulfStream."
What the heck ... I guess I'm a Silicon Valley yuppie -- let's talk about
tax cuts!
Then things REALLY went nuts.
The fiscal fountain overfloweth
Rich family is one thing -- rich friends? That took some getting used to.
One of my beloved 1970 jalopy-driving buddies shows up at my apartment in a
new BMW -- not to ride bikes or play Sega Hockey, but to go to a
wine-tasting party.
"Hey dude, I just exercised my options -- I bought a new apartment in the
Marina!"
Boyhood pal
C'mon -- a wine tasting party? In a BMW? A few years prior, that kind of
invite would have been met with a snicker and a slammed door ... now it's,
"can we stop by the hair stylist on the way?"
Then I get a phone call from another friend: "Hey dude, I just exercised my
options -- I bought a new apartment in the Marina!" This from a guy who
recently indulged in a celebratory jig after selling his Volkswagen Thing,
complete with self-adorned Led Zeppelin graffiti on the doors, for a
whopping $800.
This was getting too strange.
Next thing I know, I'm sitting with yet another friend in his car (a fresh
Lexus by the way) right before he was scheduled for a cell phone salary
negotiation with a would-be technology suitor.
Now, this kid worked hard for his $45k salary, don't get me wrong, but what
followed was a surreal experience.
"Yeah, I'm making $70k now," he lied to his would-be boss, "and I'm hoping
to get it to six figures."
If my grandfather had been listening, he'd have turned over in his grave.
But not me -- I had been officially sucked into the Silicon Valley greed
tornado.
"Tell him you want $140k with at least 40k in options," I whispered,
pretending I had a clue and relishing the absurdity of the situation. He
complied ... and so did the guy on the other end of the phone.
Suffice to say -- the suitor exceeded the terms set forth.
What hath the technological revolution wrought? We just sat in that car for
an hour, loving every minute of how we worked "the system."
Ah, but "the system" would have its revenge!
Before we knew what hit us, the economical rubber band had reached its limit
... and then some. Time for a snapback -- welcome back to reality.
Reality bites back
As fast as the fiscal euphoria set in -- maybe even faster -- it was gone.
The stock market tumbled ... mean Mr. Margin came knockin' ... options
turned to toilet paper ... Internet companies came to the painful
realization that a cute idea and the promise of future profits could no
longer hold the Street's attention.
The stock market tumbled ... mean Mr. Margin came knockin' ... options
turned to toilet paper
Shortly thereafter, the lay-offs began ... and they're still going strong to
this very day. This month alone claimed the victims of many a good friend.
Remember the Beamer boy? Two months' severance and a "thanks for coming."
And the Marina homeowner? "Good work, but ... don't let the door hit you on
the way out."
Oh yes, even the six-figure wheeler-and-dealer: "Can I have my old job back?
... Please?"
Obviously, the Monopoly money had to end at some point, let's enjoy it for
what it was -- a wonderful ride ... now back to the Budweiser, the jalopies,
and the home-cooked meals.
After all, money's a state of mind, right? Things could be worse.
Then again, I may not have a stock portfolio left, but I don't have any kids
either ... and I still have my job (knock, with bloody knuckles, on wood).

Shawn Langlois is community editor for CBS.MarketWatch.com.



To: KymarFye who wrote (70952)3/1/2001 9:31:41 PM
From: Saulamanca  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99985
 
I think Cramer is paying for the sins of his past.-g

You want a good laff?

James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition 2/29/00
An outfit like priceline (PCLN:Nasdaq - news) will change the very nature of brands in this country. It won't destroy the premium brand, but it will force everyone else out of the market. Why? Because the way priceline works is that we are trying to buy the premium brand for the price of the off-price brand. That means the off-price brands, whether they be Colgate (CL:NYSE - news) or Dial (DL:NYSE - news) or Hunt's or Ralston (RAL:NYSE-news), are simply doomed by the Web.
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