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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42913)	3/1/2001 10:25:39 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, The orders were delayed more than a year rather than cancelled. From a NVLS reporting perspective, there's no difference. And there's no guarantee they won't be pushed out even further. I got the impression that both fab pushouts came from the same company but Rick's English was ambiguous; it could have been 2 separate companies. From the $, and given NVLS's size, I think both pushouts were capacity not technology. If I were to guess who, I'd guess MOT given its problems and the fact that it's already publicly stated it would cut this year's Capex. But if we don't get the Tax Cuts and the Rate cuts soon, nobody's going to spend a nickle on capital improvements or additions. You'll be able to list the top 20 chip makers and be able to get a hit on at least one fab pushout. :-( Hey Alan, if you're reading this, we now believe that there's no such thing as the Greenspan Put. Honest. You can let up now. <g> Ian.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42913)	3/1/2001 10:38:48 PM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I wouldn't put much emphasis on the 2 cancellations... just think how many orders that may have been placed in a good environment were not: bookings of 240 million is quite low. being always the optimist, what I noted was that although NVLS forecast flat Q2 bookings, several times Hill mentioned that their field salesmen don't believe it will be flat. They think it will uptick in Q2. For what it's worth, we may be putting in a cyclical low right now! good luck, T--