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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (56426)	3/2/2001 7:06:28 AM
From: werefrog	Respond to of 74651

"I'm still just staying on the sidelines and watching. That is the prudent thing to do in times like this if you are waiting to position trade. When I said I was long everything yesterday, the time frame could be from a few minutes to a few days, depending when the market turns down this run. I concur with your accessment of msft and orcl and will mention a seasonal play coming up, buy June 1 & sell earnings day in July. Works every time, just like the Jan to Oct play. Frog

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (56426)	3/2/2001 10:28:54 AM
From: sandeep	Respond to of 74651

Actually, orcl made 11c in the nov quarter and now are saying that they will make 10c in the feb quarter. This means that they will make ~9% less and ~10% improvement from quarter year ago. msft made 47c in the dec quarter and are expected to make 43c in the march quarter which is flat from comparable quarter year ago. So, they have ALREADY said that they will make 8-9% less sequentially. I think that the downside risk is very low for this estimate. They had their problem in terms of not meeting numbers for the first time in 10 years already and guided down the next quarter (90 days ago the estimate was 47c for march quarter). Max risk is 1c and actually is probably only in revenue numbers. IMHO of course, BWDIK ?