Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (42719)	3/2/2001 8:40:55 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Premature to call the bear dead There is a lot of talk on various threads about bouncing off of long term logarithmic trend lines that date back many years. Why do trendlines work ever? Because people watch them, and if a mass consensus arrives at a similar decision - that the trend line will hold - then they hold due to the actions of people in this time frame, here and now. Do trendlines fail? All the time, and for the same reason. So before calling a late afternoon rally of insignificant proportions in even as measured against only the latest swing down over the past month, it would be wise to see confirmation in larger time frames. A higher high and low on the daily bar. A move up back into the range (outlined in the chart below). ottographs.com Until the lower trading range is cleared, the bear market is far from dead. This range if it gets back into play now, will simply define the lowest trading range on the daily charts. My guess is that it will go on for some time, possibly test the top end and bottom end one or more times before price carries on to where it will. The market could easily grind sideways in that range for weeks, months or years. It could pop up there for a day, a week, and then plummet. It could run up to the lower boundary, keel over and die. That range is much more important to the market at this point than the 1990 logarithmic trendline because that range defines the actions and decisions in the here and now. Until that range is killed off (the upside boundary is broken and price stays above), the "bear" - I prefer to call it a long term down trend - is not dead. Here's the view at the top, same process. ottographs.com