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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jill who wrote (32249)3/2/2001 8:45:50 AM
From: Nick  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 65232
 
CNBC has changed their position dramatically re: analysts. Faber is now wondering what the "young" analysts know about down cycles.

May be the end of the tunnel is in sight.



To: Jill who wrote (32249)3/2/2001 9:04:40 AM
From: edamo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
jill....both domestically and globally, with certain exceptions, most sectors and regions are not as strong as they appear.....tech, telecommunications have rapidly expanded, but core smokestack and construction have expanded at a much slower rate.....japan, the second largest consumer economy has been weak, even when the pundits claimed strong asian rebound....asean countries have cut back drastically on capital spending...mid east the same....europe has less then full employment.......even the much acclaimed oil industry and related services are no where near the peaks they reached in the eighties....numbers and balance sheets don't tell all.....you will read that the rig count is up, but relative to what? when was the last major project in the usa, be it utility, smokestack or petrochem? you read of lack of generating capacity, the need for more power plants, what you don't read is how many power plants have been decommissioned through consolidation and division of utility operating companies into marketing and generation camps.....why has there been no projects? closing down of facilities? purely economic...no incentives or viable return of investment....the higher the rates, the longer the roi....

rate cuts always help...no different this time...it is a fed induced cycle...boom to bust, when they only meant to smooth out the curve....difficult to fine tune based on lagging and most times inaccurate sample data...

guess i've been tainted by reality of running a large business....esoterics and philosophy have no place in an roi calculation....just the hard cruel fact of attaining profitability on the bottom line...and that is the only line that matters!

another rocky day, markets hanging, right or wrong on greenspan's words...

good luck

ed a.