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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (1734)	3/2/2001 9:35:06 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I agree with you observation on trading ranges, Michael. 2250-2300 is very tough resistance at this point. I wouldn't ignore trendlines entirely, however. If we don't hold 2070, we either form a new one, which is a possibility after a sell-off of this magnitude, or the next one is the 1984 trendline at about 1350. We could go sideways for two years, or set up a wide trading range a la '66-'82, but I think we need some sort of major trendline at some point to begin a new advance. Either we'll hold one, drop until we find one, or form a new one. Beats the heck out of me which option the market will choose, but given all the damage done to major trendlines, I'm not ruling out an Orwellian (ggg - 1984) resolution to all this... One plus if we reform the 90 COMPX line at 2070 is I think it would reduce the average annual return needed to sustain that line from about 30% to about 25%. Still very high from a historical standpoint, but coming off a 60% bear market, it's probably a sustainable pace for a couple of years.