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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (64894)	3/2/2001 11:38:34 AM
From: Proton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

What would you like to see happen here in terms of price action to make you a bull? Excellent question, and one I wrestle constantly. What brought me back to gold is a recent cluster of sentiment tells: Market Vane bullish readings in the low teens, increasing short positions among large and small specs, and some high-visibility (Barron's, FT) "gold is dead" articles. I'm a horrendous bottom-fisher, so I've learned to concede 5-15% off a turn in return for catching the middle of a great move. To turn positive on gold, Russ, I need confirmation of the double-bottom thesis. There's a cluster of support/resistance in the 275-283 (COMEX) range, so a clean move to 285 (12% off the bottom) would grow me some longhorns. Of course, one would miss 20-100% moves in well-leveraged stock plays (ugh). I'm fascinated (almost obsessed) with that textbook descending wedge on the weekly GC chart from 1999. The breakout target for this moves, but let's use a penetration of the recent high at 267.40 for now. Stop out if the price falls back into the wedge. Here's a scale strategy I'm considering: 1. Go 1/3 long when the current short-term overbought condition is relieved. Stop just below the double bottom. 2. Add 1/3 on a breakout of the wedge (or 267.70). Stop on return into the wedge. 3. Add final 1/3 at 285. Evaluate stop then. Just writing this has focused my thinking. Thanks for your extraordinary contributions here! P. p.s. I mentioned earlier that the 14-day RSI is an important indicator on gold. There has only been one clear oversold reading in the past three years. In the summer of 1999, the RSI was oversold for nearly a month. The indicator bounced right to the mid-line around the Fourth of July. There were two buy signals after that: 1. Divergence: higher lows on the RSI as price made lower lows to 252. 2. Signal: penetration of the mid-line in early August. Check out what happens next... :-) And, no, I wasn't in on the move... :-( In February the daily RSI went oversold for the first time since the Washington Accord.