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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mayer Tchelebon who wrote (759)	3/7/2001 8:01:07 PM
From: Lorne Larson	Respond to of 11633

I agree with your math on this one, although my numbers are marginally different. I'm going to be buying some IOI tomorrow. What is happening right now is that SHN is moving up as we get closer to dividend declaration date. Dividend should be in the $1.00 range, and I wouldn't be surprised to see SHN at between $17.50 and $18.00 within the next 2 weeks. After x-dividend date at end of March, the market assumed to be efficient, the shares should drop off by roughly this amount. This should mean that SHN than trades at around $16.75. At this point, allowing for the fact that SHN will pay $5.10 on about 36% of the IOI shares, your effective price for SHN (using todays value of $4.72 for IOI) is about $14.50. That is a huge discount from $16.75. For this reason I just can't see IOI dropping much, if at all, from todays price, and there is great potential upside to close the discount. Seems to me very similar to the CYZ/PWI situation, where the price of CYZ has moved from $12.20 to around $13.00 in the last 4 or 5 days to close the discount. . Anyone see any flaws in this analysis? Any comments would be much appreciated.