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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15430)	3/2/2001 11:38:21 AM
From: The Duke of URL©	Respond to of 19079

NYCB: Perhaps you could explain what then this statement means in you profile: Investment Style To provide advice while letting people with more guts than me trade my money. TIA.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15430)	3/2/2001 11:53:38 AM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 19079

LOL If that's where your money is...you have a very short and tight window for making anything.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15430)	3/2/2001 12:10:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi NYCB, the denial is always strongest at the onset of pain. Upon further application of pain by a market falling of its own free will under the influence of very natural financial laws, the denial gradually gives way to concern, then worry. Upon realization of the full magnitude of mistakes made and hedges not made, wild panic commences, if not by the folks on this thread, then others less thoughtful. I am not ashamed to admit that I considered doing a trade of ORCL (long plus put/call) at this level. A sort of a kiss before the shove. I changed my mind. Here are my reasons: (a) ORCL operates very successfully in a very competitive, but generic "space", (b) software migration is far simpler than changing over between incompatible hardware platforms and such early year peculiarities of the computer world, (c) software, once developed, is cheap, once standardized or amalgamated via middleware, is commodity, (d) which then leaves the outcome of competition to quality of execution, (e) thus one ought not to take a large gamble on such a flimsy "critical success factor", as I prefer monopoly, barriers to entry, internal diversity of products, healthy customers, etc. MSFT in early January was a good bet, ORCL now is not yet; (f) the option premium is not flashing panic; and (g) ORCL is just another little boat in the financial sea, as a rising tide raises all boats, however decrepit, a spinning washing machine type of storm will sink many ships, however large. This could be the storm where we all relearn the meaning of "book value" and "replacement cost", and I simply do not know how a human capital company will fare in a classic bubble bursting downturn. The storm has nothing to do inventory adjustment, if it did, giving the inventory away at one go will stop the bad days. So I wait, and can afford to, as the prey can not run away. On the short side, shorting these blue chips of the New Era is not to my preference either. The mania has destroyed so many short folks, as it will destroy so many tall ones. I agree that the upside to gold is attractive, and that cash is a very acceptable state for asset to be in, as it is several states away from vapor. Wealth, like water, at different times, boils, flows, stores, and evaporates. No need to place bets until the roulette wheel stops spinning and die stops tumbling. Chugs, Jay

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15430)	3/2/2001 12:43:56 PM
From: Bipin Prasad	Respond to of 19079

WHAO! Gold stocks! You are making money ? Get LOST loser! .

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (15430)	5/3/2002 11:06:56 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi NYCB, <<cash and gold>> has been good over the past 14 months since this exchange ... Message 15438553 I am thinking that perhaps intimate knowledge of product attribute is not nearly as important as investment acumen, of which we obviously have not so much, but none the less better than playing the old in/out with a script that declines by 50% over 14 months. Congrats, Jay P.S. What do you think the future holds ... Message 17411537