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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: biowa who wrote (2326)	3/2/2001 12:43:55 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 4974

Excuse me, "MAJOR marketing success" then. <g> Hardly a "me too" drug however, as the chemistry at Lilly was contemporaneous with that at Merck. But the bottom line is that an effectively managed biotech stuck it to one of the world's most respected of pharmas. I don't know where the the MAJOR successes are lurking either. I do know, however, that many stocks have been hit so hard that they are screaming bargains, based only on their research infrastructures. Given the cash looking for acquisitions, I see downside protection. Add a clinical and/or preclinical development pipe (e.g., VPHM) and you get leverage. I don't mind the doom and gloom. I take advantage of it on a daily basis. CEPH, turning from myotrophin, a ten-bagger on a modest little success. Price has been maintained. Let's cut to the real argument here..... VPHM. A modest cut in the duration of a cold isn't going to lead to marketing success. Clearly, however, the intent is to compile a track record of safety, post-plec approval. What is an advisory committee going to do, given modest clinical success (if and when, not anywhere near a given IMO)? I don't know. However, I do know that the market potential is enormous, even if penetration would be painfully slow. Leverage is everywhere. M&A hunters are too. This isn't Summer/Fall 1998. I place the odds of plec success at 40:60. It's the leverage that counts, im my eyes. To reiterate (not necessary for you two, I realize)....... I am a traditional biotech investor. I was a biotech investor when there WERE NO PRODUCTS. I compile baskets of leveraged, small cap ops.