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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scotty who wrote (74576)	3/2/2001 12:50:36 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

i own some NDX calls as a hedge, but the wave structure of the SnP looks extremely negative to me...i still expect a high either today or early Monday before selling resumes.

To: scotty who wrote (74576)	3/2/2001 12:54:27 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

OINK! Hogs Soar to Six-Month High On Concerns of Supply Shortage By DANIEL ROSENBERG Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL CHICAGO -- Fearing a supply shortage, traders sent hog prices to six-month highs at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. slaughter pace is running below expected levels and packers are scrambling to find swine, analysts said. There is concern that the government may have overestimated the number of market-ready pigs in its last quarterly supply report. Nearby April hog prices rose 1.05 cents to 63.85 cents a pound after earlier setting a contract high of 64.20. Prices are the highest for a nearby contract since August. Though pork demand improved recently from its winter doldrums, the rally in futures was driven by supply, not demand, concerns. "Hogs aren't showing up the way they were supposed to," said Chuck Levitt, analyst with brokerage Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "Maybe a few less baby hogs survived last summer. We did have some really hot temperatures." The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its December quarterly supply report that the number of market hogs, or hogs ready for slaughter, was up 1% as of Dec. 1 from the previous year. But year-to-date, slaughter is down almost 2% from year-ago levels, the USDA said. Last week's kill was down more than 1% from the same week a year ago, and this week's kill so far is down more than 2%. A number of factors can push the kill below expected levels, analysts said. Inclement weather can prevent producers from getting hogs to market. Or farmers might decide to save more young female hogs for breeding. But Midwest weather has improved in recent days, with clear skies and warmer temperatures. "We're not backlogging hogs in the country," Mr. Levitt said. Producers don't seem inclined to rebuild breeding supplies. "Probabilities are quite good that the industry has at least stopped the growth in the breeding herd started last year," said Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain, economists at the University of Missouri, in a recent note on their Internet site. Chances are, Mr. Levitt said, that the USDA overestimated how many pigs would be available this time of year, and that the supplies simply aren't out there. A person at a major U.S. packing firm said the industry is having a difficult time finding hogs and had expected to have a few more available by now. Some packing firms have begun to scout for hogs outside of their usual areas. At the same time, pork demand has improved recently, thanks to expensive beef, analysts said. Beef prices are at record levels because of winter storms in the Great Plains that kept cattle from reaching proper marketing weights. AND...(drumroll...): SOYBEANS: Prices rose at the Chicago Board of Trade, mostly because of strong buying. The March contract added 3.50 cents to $4.57 a bushel. The market was also helped by the USDA's weekly export sales report, which showed higher-than-expected sales of 511,500 metric tons for the week ended Feb. 22. wouldn't you know! prices rising due to strong buying mostly.