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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (42942)	3/2/2001 8:07:26 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

That is nothing but numerology, as good as astrology. There is a much better indicator of the bottom: bookings for semi-equip. Bookings peaked, and are now in a downtrend. When will that downtrend end? Well, in the last few weeks, almost every semi company has said that demand for their products abruptly declined recently. Chips for PCs, telecom, everything. The universal comment on every CC is "zero visibility". In that environment, it is a near certainty that bookings are going to continue to decline. And, if bookings continue to decline, what is the basis for a sustained recovery in semi-equip stocks? Answer: there is none. AMAT hit 34 in 12/00. Compare the situation then and now (bookings trend, semi profits, semi capacity utilization, "visibility", any metric you want to use). The situation today is significantly worse than last December. And the outlook for the future has not improved. IMO, the rally from yesterday's low to today's high is random motion within a trading range of 40-50. And, when we break out of that range, events of the last month mean we are more likely to break down than up. Next time we bump up to the 49-50 area, I will be shorting or buying puts.