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To: Tony Viola who wrote (128853)3/2/2001 4:22:42 PM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Tony,

What Greenspan does is an art, not a science. I have to agree with GV (and you know how I hate that).

Put yourself back in spring 2000. Intel couldn't meet demand, they were talking about DRAM shortages, the economy, to any observer, was overheating. Prices looked very much like they were going to spike, big time.

It's easy to second guess a quarterback after an interception. Greenspan blew it, but if I had to make the same decisions in the same timeframe, I would have blown it as well. Maybe if you were charged with the responsibility of containing inflation, you would have made a different decision.

There is also the good argument that the optimism of mid 1999 to spring 2000 led to overcapacity. And that is the current problem. I don't buy that. I think we are in an old fashioned end of cycle slow down, it's happened many, many times before, and will probably happen many, many times again.

John