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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (7008)	3/2/2001 4:15:28 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

JT, I know your thoughts on next weak but Elliot would disagree with you. I am truly scared about Monday. Those lows today are gonna have to hold or I would be running like a bat out of hell for the exits. Just to let you know, i have nothing but "core" shorts/puts in my account so I may be biased but I know you also put alot of importance on today's S&P close. Should be fun! Have a good weekend! Shack

To: J.T. who wrote (7008)	3/4/2001 11:03:50 PM
From: SecularBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

New York Times, March 4, 2001 Market Watch: A Year Later, Time to Think About Buying Again By ALEX BERENSON Time to be greedy. A year ago, investors were wise to be afraid. Between October 1998 and March 2000, the technology-fattened Nasdaq composite index had more than tripled. After a decade of gains, information technology stocks were extraordinarily expensive. Cisco Systems, then the world's most valuable company, traded at almost 200 times earnings. Newer companies had multibillion-dollar valuations, though they had no profits — and in some cases almost no sales. The broader stock market was also overvalued. One year ago, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index traded at almost 30 times its expected earnings for 2000, offering investors an earnings yield of barely 3 percent. At the time, long-term bonds were paying more than 6 percent. Usually, earnings yields are much more closely linked to interest rates. The gap indicated investors were overpaying for stocks. So March 2000 was a time for fear. But greed ruled the markets. Investors, even professional money managers and analysts, worried more about the risk of not making money than the risk of losing it. "I certainly became trained to always ask the question, `What am I missing on the upside?' " said Henry Blodget, the Internet analyst at Merrill Lynch. Now everything has changed. The Nasdaq has fallen 58 percent from its peak, and many technology companies are down much more. The S.& P. 500 is off almost 20 percent, the not-so-magic number that defines a bear market. Wall Street seems locked in a never-ending stream of earnings warnings and layoff announcements. Just this week, Oracle, Gap and Nike said their profits would fall short of forecasts, JDS Uniphase announced the layoff of 3,000 workers, and eToys said it would file for bankruptcy. The debate over whether the economy is slowing has turned into a debate over whether the current slowdown is more likely to resemble a "V," with a quick turn by the summer, or a "U," with a rough bottom that does not end until at least year-end. Wall Street's mood is ugly. Everything has changed. Except nothing has changed. As last year's euphoria has turned to this year's depression, it is easy to forget that the technological advances that drove the 1990's bull market are happening faster than ever. Do you own a cell phone? A personal computer? Do you have Internet access? Did you have any of those a decade ago? How many of the prescription drugs that you take were created in the last decade? Did you ever imagine that gene therapy would be anything other than science fiction? These are more than theoretical questions. Gains in technology have fueled the fastest-growing companies in history. In 1990, Microsoft, Dell Computer and Cisco had combined sales of $2 billion. Last year, their sales were $80 billion. If you are an investor with a reasonably long time horizon — five years or more — stop worrying about the "V" or "U" debate. The only way you will lose money in stocks is if the markets head into an "L," a bottom that lasts for years. Anything is possible, of course, as investors in Japanese stocks are still finding out — to their chagrin. But believing in an "L" means believing that the technological gains of the last decade were illusory. Stocks, meanwhile, have become more reasonably valued, because they have fallen so much and long-term interest rates have fallen, too. The forward earnings yield on the S.& P. 500 is now just under 5 percent, close to the yield on long-term bonds. Cisco trades at just 33 times earnings. The risk of a short-term recession is high. But help for the economy is on the way. Monetary and fiscal policy, so tight during the last year, are being loosened. And inflation remains only a distant threat. The biggest driver of inflation over the last six months has been the price of energy, especially natural gas, and gas prices have fallen by half since their peak in December. This may not be absolute bottom, since the bad news will not end for at least a couple of months. But it is too late to be afraid, too late to sell at the peak. Stocks are much cheaper than they were a year ago. It is time to be greedy.

To: J.T. who wrote (7008)	3/5/2001 12:07:53 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Clarification... SPX closed above the October 18, 1999 intraday lows... Read this closely Wednesday Rydex Update MITA 6923... ******************* ...<Bulls are glad to get out of the month of February. 3rd worst month on record for nasdaq. A humbling experience for Bulls to say the least. Bears call it payback time. Right now with today's closing prices in the broad market - WE ARE IN THE DEATH ZONE. It is that point where Bears have the opportunity to take out significant supports in the last 3 significant lead sled dogs: DOW, SPX and BKX. It has obviously already happened in tech ala COMP, NDX, SOX, IIX NWX et al... The Bulls need to draw the line of support right here and now and mount the counter-tet offensive. On the Bearish extreme, I have heard some calling for a hard break down to DOW 9,200 and SPX 970 sometime in the month of March. That would correspond to BKX below 780. Cycle lows are between now and friday and this is fodder for Bears. The Bulls cling to SPX holding above that SPX 1,233.70 the October 18, 1999 intraday lows. So for me critical support is SPX 1,230. That sucker breaks on the close then SPX 1,160 test (December 15, 16 1998 close) is potentially on deck. DOW 10,320 close must hold. So must BKX 860. If all 3 blow thru supports and more importantly book closes below these levels then the final wash-out is on deck and it will be nasty... Positive divergences in the 5 day rsi levels are emerging. As the market continues to move lower in the DOW, SPX, COMP and BKX et al the relative strength numbers have actually been rising to higher lows in 5 day RSI levels as new lows get booked in the major indices. This is signficant as internal momentum indicators are quietly changing as the mass public is blowing chow and heading for the exit. Rydex numbers confirm this. Moreover, the 21 day rsi levels, the more stringent test, is approaching oversold levels and are converging on the 5 day levels. BULLISH. The next two days is gona be war. It will be ugly and volatile. If the Bulls survive the next two days onslaught, the Bears are dead in the countertrend rally.>... ***************** The Bulls have taken the Bears best combination punches this past few days let alone weeks and held the line as close as it gets... Now Bulls need to enforece the counter-assault and connect a few overhand rights and gain confidence and momentum right outta da blocks on monday... Best Regards, J.T.