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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (4500)	3/2/2001 11:32:27 PM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

That is really a tough question. I tend to look at some of the market leaders to figure what the market is willing to pay. i.e Ge which is slated to grow at 14.5% percent this year is trading 32 times this years earnings. Qcom which is also slated to grow about 20% this years is trading at 50 times this years earnings. The current yearly estimates on sebl are quite far apart any where from .70 to .84 cents a share. If you took the low estimate it is still about 95% growth and the stock is trading at about 55 times earnings. On the high estimate it is growing at over 120% and about 43 times earnings. That tells you the market is not buying those figures and is definitely looking for a miss. If sebl could dodge the economic malaise that is going around and execute like they have been, At current levels it will be a steal when you look back in a few years. This selling also has to have something to do with the notion of a expected severe recession and a stagnant technology sector for a long period. So how do you value sebl and what is a fair price is really a question of what a individual investor believes as fair value.At current levels it is a great buy for me and should prove so unless the economy is worse than anyone thought, which is beyond my control. I also sold it when it was around hundred as in my opinion it was priced for perfection and speculative. Ps I did not have a calculator around and calculated the above numbers by eye balling them.