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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Webster Groves who wrote (88316)	3/2/2001 4:58:52 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

FGH... FGH has the backlog on the HLX/boat side to pontentially pull out of this and some analysts are actually seeing a strong late 2001/2002 boat const' boom coming. But have they lost the confidence of the entire industry here on being able to execute on the rig/fab side ? Maybe most importantly; can they even get someone/anyone to issue a bond for them for the next "big contract" they want to bid & build ? Too much litigation, too much endless bad news, too much piss poor execution & maybe even a complete & total loss of the once mystique of being "the yard of choice" - to perhaps now being - "the yard of doubt & avoidance"... Can they tap the markets any longer ? ... not looking good & a strong US$ isn't helping them vs. the asian yards either. Maybe a DCB trade out there; but I'd rather ride a PGO laggard here than FGH...untill some definitive financial analysis is forthcoming. FGH could be a DCB Trading double if they pull a rabbit out of the hat; but you could just as easily wake up to a an .11 cent BK/HMAR the way things are going.... For now - I'll pass; but admittedly keeping an interested eye on it... Someone asked about what did all the shorts know - back at $20ish FGI when FGI was still putting out decent eps #'s etc... IMO; what they saw was what just occured in Telcom/Tech - an unprecedented/unrepeatable Cap Ex bubble... the historic Newbuild boom that catapulted FGI to $40 was NOT going to be sustained, it couldn't be sustained & the likes of FLC potentially teetering on BK at the bottom of the cycle because of the over-building proved to them that it wasn't going to change anytime soon. The shorts simply foresaw the coming complete collapse/disappearance of the New Build market - knowing the newbuild buildout cycle from 97-98 would over-supply the market thru the next boom cycle & saw theFGH newbuild bubble - as just that; a bubble; a one time blip - not to be repeated ... ... and they were right.

To: Webster Groves who wrote (88316)	3/2/2001 7:28:57 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Webster, I don't think that will be done. Kind of hard to "break up" a rig. This is a very complicated issue with FGH vis a vis OceanRig. The true story is that no outsiders really have a clue what is going on between those two companies. Cat and mouse game? Who knows? The fact is that these are the only assets of OceanRig and they do not have contracts for the rigs on delivery. It also seems (obviously) that FGH is not/did not make money on these projects -- for whatever reason -- so why would an outsider make the assumption that they will be able to make any money on the back log of work that some folks are touting? Wasn't that one of Halter's problems?-- Lots of work but unable to make a profit on the work? FGH may have to concede the rig building business and concentrate on the non-oilpatch side. It is beyond my imgagination that any drilling contractor would place a rig order with FGH within the next 1-2 years. Even if the OceanRig matter is settled to the extreme favor of FGH it does not clear up the nightmare memories...customers don't want nightmares, they want sweet dreams. Like I said yesterday, FGH needs a clean sweep, new owner, new face. And I predict that is what will happen. (Which may not be a bad thing for common share owners...) From the talk I have heard, there are no tears being shed for JL. I don't think he made many pals over there (although I have always liked him personally and have known him for 10-12 years)...he just never seemed to treat people 'right'. If anyone thinks FGH will survive sans bankruptcy, they should be buying the convert bond issue...last I checked it was selling at about 41...nice return if this puppy is paid in full at maturity (2004 or 07) and pays the coupon all along. Could go to zero or 100...place your bet. big