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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (5733)	3/2/2001 6:41:39 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6445

Next week will probably be "short the blimp" week again as some of our favorites like WEBM, ONIS, JNPR, CIEN, NUFO, EXFO come into target range. Some had CIEN in the room today and its amazing how this leopard never changes its spots. I am in MWD, IBM and RIMM puts. I would have like MSFT but I was a little late getting on the bandwagon

To: Jenna who wrote (5733)	3/2/2001 6:46:33 PM
From: Jenna	Respond to of 6445

I promised I would have an answer about where we get the intraday updates on the Watch Lists, but I'm still working on it with Silicone. By next week I hope to have a solution. Either stay put, or go with an area on Pristine's website, perhaps the Ultimate Bulletin Board. Here is how it looks: infopop.com (click on the CUSTOMERS different logos to see the board)

To: Jenna who wrote (5733)	3/2/2001 6:46:55 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 6445

Charles Phillips, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Chuck's Picks: ORCL, SEBL and VRTS will all still be fair weather stocks in a couple of years. Has been trying to measure the severity of this recessional economy. The degree and slope of the curve of this economy recession does matter in the market. The surveys looked fine from Jan. and mid-Feb. This market deals with psychology and sentiment.

To: Jenna who wrote (5733)	3/2/2001 6:50:10 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

Kudlow: Why Delay an Ease? By Lawrence Kudlow Contributing Editor Mar 1, 2001 04:15 PM In the political game of expectations this past week, George Bush's quasi State of the Union message on tax and budget policy passed with flying colors. But Alan Greenspan flunked in his monetary report to Congress. President Bush steadfastly and artfully defended his pro-growth tax-rate relief plan, along with a flexible freeze budget and a move to ease energy drilling and production rules in order to generate more power for the high-tech wired economy. In sum, Bush put forward a clear economic growth strategy to reverse the Clinton economic decline he has inherited. Mr. Greenspan, however, had no such message. After considerable speculation that the Fed chairman would significantly revise the economic report he delivered two weeks ago to the Senate, and great market hopes of a 50 basis-point inter-meeting rate cut, the so-called maestro vetoed the early rate cut idea and altered his testimony only slightly, but pessimistically. In response, stock markets fell again. And again. The bear market Nasdaq technology index, already down more than 50 percent from its peak, is now joined by the S&P 500, which has recently moved into the official bear territory of a 20 percent decline. The stock market message is a recessionary one. And Mr. Greenspan said very little to rebut this outcome. He no longer disputes that the sizable drop in consumer confidence is consistent with past recessions. He also believes that "excesses built up in 1999 and early 2000" are still causing a "retrenchment" in the economy. Reading between the lines, Greenspanspeak is essentially saying that a recession is upon us, and there's really not much the Fed can do about it. Yes, the central bank will cut interest rates more in the months ahead. But they prefer to do so at regularly scheduled FOMC meetings, rather than in between meetings. The next Fed policy get-together is March 20, with future meetings scheduled for May 15 and June 27. It is not unreasonable to anticipate 50- basis point cuts in the fed funds policy rate at each of these meetings. That would bring the key rate to 4 percent by mid-year. However, there is a cost to delaying these rate cuts. Think of it this way. If you know there's a deep discount car sale starting one week from now, will you shop for a new auto this coming week? Or will you wait to capture the price-cut benefits of the official sale? The same holds true for the economy. Since everyone in our well-informed web site economy knows that future fed rate cuts are in the cards, they are likely to hold back on spending and investing actions until the Fed actually pulls the trigger. Hence delayed interest rate cuts will actually have the unwanted effect of delaying economic recovery. The Fed may believe it is acting prudently in an orderly manner by holding back until its formal policy meetings occur, but the unintended consequence of this thinking will cause a lengthier downturn in the short run. The exact same principle holds for tax policy. That is why President Bush has wisely asked Congress for a retroactive tax-rate cut and prompt legislative action to trigger it. Delaying or phasing in tax cuts will slow the economy in the short run. This is particularly the case for upper end earners, who supply much of the risk capital for new business investment. Why declare a transaction when the top rate is 40 percent, when you know in a year or two (or six) it might be 33 percent? Risk capital will be withheld until investors can capture the lowest marginal tax-rate. But it's the provision of risk capital that truly drives the animal spirits of growth. Back to Mr. Greenspan. He continues to avoid any responsibility for the economic downturn. Instead, he puts the finger on mistake-prone business people who accumulated too many inventories, or crazed technology entrepreneurs who committed too much capital, or overly exuberant stock market investors, or nasty OPEC countries who jacked up oil prices. Everyone's to blame but the Fed. But how about the inverted Treasury yield curve most of last year, which was signaling excess Fed tightening and warning of a future recession? How about the wild go-and-stop money supply policy, where 12-month monetary base growth swung from 6.6 percent in December 1998 to 16 percent in December 1999, and then collapsed to negative 2.5 percent by December 2000. Even today, the central bank refuses to acknowledge that virtually every commodity price on the planet is deflating. Or that the short end of the Treasury curve is still inverted, where three-month Treasury bills yield more than two- and five-year Treasury notes. These commodity and financial price indicators suggest that liquidity preferences in the economy are very high (retail and institutional money funds are growing like topsy), but the Fed's provision of liquidity is still in short supply. Economic growth is not likely to resume until liquidity is adequate and the Treasury curve is upward sloping from the short end all the way out to the longest dated maturities. Commodity prices and interest rates will have to stabilize before confidence returns. Easier money and lower tax-rates is an appropriate monetary-fiscal policy mix to stimulate recovery. And help is on the way. But it now looks like delaying tactics from the Fed will postpone a likely stock market and economic rebound for several more months.

To: Jenna who wrote (5733)	3/2/2001 9:21:21 PM
From: Jenna	Respond to of 6445

The Free Earnings Trader reports on Trading Strategies for the Earning Season, will resume on the my webpage on the Pristine Site. We already have 9 articles and will posts new ones (another one this upcoming Friday) as the NEW Earnings Season draws near. I know we are not crazy about Earnings Season but we have no choice but to be equipped to deal with the volatility, company pre-announcements, etc, some good news as companies might actually beat estimates, and last but not least, the shorting opportunities that arise. Got some e-mail about the classes and the subjects covered will be included in a .pdf file together with the charts, etc. that you can download from the FREE site when its finished so yes thy will be available to anyone who might be interested. Just a FIRST AID primer for Trading today's market climate since certain techniques are NOW more critical in making trading decisions. Basically I've outlined some of these techniques we've used in the trading room dealing with specific trading situations encountered during the last year, and this was NOT a particularly average year. A) Following a Watchlist B) Intraday reversal patterns and their confirmation C) Exiting/Entering a Trade using multiple time frames D) Reversal Periods and Trendline Breakouts E) Market Internals can Make or Break your Trade F) Utilizing and Filtering out the Pre-Market News (EMBT could have been a great short today and great recovery etc

To: Jenna who wrote (5733)	3/2/2001 9:23:09 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

The Free "Earnings Play" Trader reports on Trading Strategies for the Earning Season, pristine.com will resume on the my webpage on the Pristine Site. We already have 9 articles and will posts new ones (another one this upcoming Friday) as the NEW Earnings Season draws near. I know we are not crazy about Earnings Season but we have no choice but to be equipped to deal with the volatility, company pre-announcements, etc, some good news as companies might actually beat estimates, and last but not least, the shorting opportunities that arise. Got some e-mail about the classes and the subjects covered will be included in a .pdf file together with the charts, etc. that I will post on SI. Just a FIRST AID primer for Trading today's market climate since certain techniques are NOW more critical in making trading decisions. Basically I've outlined some of these techniques we've used in the trading room dealing with specific trading situations encountered during the last year, and this was NOT a particularly average year. A) Following a Watchlist B) Intraday reversal patterns and their confirmation C) Exiting/Entering a Trade using multiple time frames D) Reversal Periods and Trendline Breakouts E) Market Internals can Make or Break your Trade F) Utilizing and Filtering out the Pre-Market News (EMBT could have been a great short today and great recovery etc