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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (71044)	3/2/2001 7:54:19 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

This is more of an exhaustion type event Normally you are right about the Bull and Bear sentiment readings. Those were effective up to 1998, but then in the last phases of the bubble most remaining bears became exhausted and just gave up. Once the NASDAQ rose 84% in 1999, then the saying went--anyone bearish in the last year, two years, ten years---missed the entire event. Sentiment is bearish, just most of the prior exhaustion run up to NASDAQ 5000 is preventing most from announcing bearishness for the fear of looking stupid. The plunge in consumer confidence to four year lows is enough of a bearish signal to me. Lack of confidence in Greenspan is another bearish signal. Fund distributions are at the highest reading since the Asia crises. What will happen is there is the spook of technology and post Cold War earnings that will rebound---but not as strong and sustainable as before--this will lead to rallies. Then once reality sets in that GDP will remain low, the relief euphoria will squander. Then those bull/bear readings will be useful again. Even though the NASDAQ collapsed 59% in 1973-74, the press did not declare stocks 'dead' until 1978-1979. Then we had another strong rally from 1979-1980 before collapsing again. The reality is that we are setting up a multi-year trading range. Probably take NASDAQ 15 years or more to see 5000 again. And it may not---if you ask me, we won't see those levels under the present structure. This long bear will likely force mergers between economies and exchanges. The first natural fit would be London and NY, given London's refusal to adopt the Euro and they are still the #1 financial center worldwide.

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (71044)	3/2/2001 7:56:07 PM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 99985

Ode to LG. Dead and gone. He fought the good fight. He should'a Kicked the sh%t out of the SI police. But he fought the good fight. He went down swing'in. The last word i heard him say. Before that one final belt to the stomach. Was.... Don't ever give up the fight. Steal the cheese everyday. Be a mouse. Buy a house. But don't ever let the bullshit get you down...

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (71044)	3/2/2001 8:09:19 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hard to believe but the latest AAII sentiment numbers show a big rise in bulls and a large drop in bears this week. Bulls up from 30% to 46%. These numbers baffle me given the market action this week.

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (71044)	3/3/2001 10:33:42 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Re Sentiment at Major Lows: I've studied Market Sentiment extensively, and have historical data on most of the major sentiment indicators. Yes, sentiment should be strongly bearish at lows, and very strongly bearish at major lows. The problem is, there are a lot of commentators and experts discussing sentiment, but very seldom does anyone show a detailed analysis of each sentiment indicator and its historical correlation with the Market. In particular, the Investors Intelligence survey is the most commonly cited indicator, but it is a "broken indicator", that is it no longer shows the range of fluctuation it once did, and has failed to give clear signals at the major highs and lows in recent years. I use four sentiment indicators - all of which recently hit extremes of bearishness. Jake Bernstein's Daily Sentiment Indices give the best readings at each short-term high and low, and are published daily, but are sold by subscription. There are, however, 3 indicators published weekly in Barron's that have reliably signalled all recent intermediate term highs and lows: the AAII Survey, Consensus Inc, and Market Vane. Because the AAII Survey results are extremely volatile week to week, I use the average of the 3 Bullish %s. They're in the Market Laboratory sub section of the MW Section, near the back. I have the Investor's Intelligence data hand-charted back to the 70's, some of it would require a search. I have the 3 indicators from Barron's in Excel with graphs. If you want me to E-Mail any data to you, just give me your E-address. (I don't know how to do links on this site.) I'm in the process of doing a major update of my indicators, and one thing I'm seeing this time is that my indicators have made more than one low, ie lows in bullishness, but each time the Market index, esp the Nasdaq has made a lower low. That's a subtler aspect of the indicators; they don't easily tell you the strength or weakness of the Market's underlying trend. Basically, it's best if bearishness gets extreme on a modest Market drop, while bullishness takes a long time to develop during a powerful Market advance, as in the 1993 thru 1995 period.