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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (74938)	3/2/2001 9:08:08 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

yep...it contains one rather blue-eyed assertion however: <<Few economists now doubt that, unlike Japan in the 1980s, America has experienced real changes in the last 10 years that have raised the long-term growth rate. The excess rate of growth in the year or so up to the middle of last year was not that far above potential growth and the subsequent shake-out may be brief and relatively shallow.>> first of all, when Japan's bubble peaked, no-one doubted the superiority of the Japanese economic model. Japan was the trail-blazer in modern productivity enhancements such as just-in-time inventory for instance, and Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry had acquired a deity like status not dissimilar to that of Greenspan's Fed. the bubble in the stock market was explained away with the usual 'it's different here' nonsense...it was regarded as legitimate that Japanese shares should be valued at much higher levels than shares elsewhere. it was considered a mark of Japan's success. secondly, what few economists doubt, i.e. the majority of them accepts as gospel, is usually completely wrong. a study in England showed that a group of house-wives proved better at forecasting the economy than a similarly sized group of economists, over several different time frames. that came as no surprise to me...i have yet to see a mainstream economic forecast actually come true.