Hi Milan, Good arguments all.
<<Jay, I guess you have never even seen a line of software code? Your post is the most humorous I have seen in a while:>>
Hi, yes but not very interesting, and meant to be funny. I still have 100 shares of ORCL, as a souvenir and subscription to the annual report, nothing more. I am laughing, joyously, always, as my path is correct. Mr. Ellison’s actions and mine are similar … sell.
<<(a) ORCL operates very successfully in a very competitive, but generic "space", Can you please name the competitors? IBM with DB2 and Microsoft with SQL Server are about the only things that even come close, and they cater to different markets - (eg, you can't buy 7x24 support with SQL Server).>>
Open the mind and see that database software, in all its variation, will compete against each other unless you assume ORCL is smart and all others are idiots. If you do, then it is a poor assumption. The great grand unification piece of code is coming, for every genre of software space. It is know as progress.
<<(b) software migration is far simpler than changing over between incompatible hardware platforms and such early year peculiarities of the computer world, LOL! Please, can you please tell me how to migrate my desktop, with all its data and applications, from Win2000 to Linux? Quick, perhaps you can tell Nike how to switch from their i2 supply-chain software to someone else's software, since the i2 thing blew their financials for them?>>
We are not talking about complications on the order of migrating from incompatible hardware, are we? Nike will no doubt get the jib done. Just because you do not know how, it does not follow that the job is difficult. Again, open the mind.
<<(c) software, once developed, is cheap, once standardized or amalgamated via middleware, is commodity,
Silly me - I wonder where Oracle gets off charging $25K for even the most basic license.>>
Good question. Ask ARBA, CMRC and others, and know that their answer is the right one. The sky is just that big around when you are standing at the bottom of a well, staring upward.
<<(d) which then leaves the outcome of competition to quality of execution,
(e) thus one ought not to take a large gamble on such a flimsy "critical success factor", as I prefer monopoly, barriers to entry, internal diversity of products, healthy customers, etc. MSFT in early January was a good bet, ORCL now is not yet;
Amazing - since there are no barriers to entry, I think I will quit my day job as a programmer and go off and build a database server to compete with Oracle... >>
Advise you start learning how to manage mercenaries.
Message 15441925
<<(f) the option premium is not flashing panic; and
(g) ORCL is just another little boat in the financial sea, as a rising tide raises all boats, however decrepit, a spinning washing machine type of storm will sink many ships, however large.
Your thinking is based on absolutely zero knowledge of the software world. Oracle has a virtual stranglehold on databases - every time you buy a "Learn software in 15 minutes" book at Walmart, many instances of Oracle databases are touched - from the inventory system at Walmart, to the database at your credit card company, to the logistics system at the publisher. Its completely impossible to imagine any economy in this world without Oracle database software keeping its pulse alive...>>
I need to know market size, price point, industry structure, competition, innovation, product cycle, economics, finance, valuation and history. The gritty details of codes are best left to the technicians, just as auto assembly.
Conviction and denial is good, up to a point. Not hedging is simply not wise, especially as your assets and career are wrapped up in one bubble. Again advise caution.
Chugs, Jay |
