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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: prophet_often who wrote (48358)	3/3/2001 9:58:13 AM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 57584

Look at FFIV,AVCI,FNSR,etc

To: prophet_often who wrote (48358)	3/5/2001 1:55:49 AM
From: Mark Konrad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

JNIC...excellent observation, Prophet. A worthy competitor to EMLX, I loved JNIC (profitable, no debt, low P/E, etc.) last summer in the low-mid 20's (undervalued at that time, imo) and shunned it when it went past 80 (overvalued). Now I think it's way undervalued again (along with FNSR). I'm nibbling away at additional shares but have given up picking an absolute bottom on any of these. Just as I should have been more confident a year ago to sell into all the "irrational exuberance" I'm inclined now to buy and hold through the current pessimism. In general, technical analysis is extremely "fuzzy" at market extremes...everything is literally off the charts in one direction or the other. "Time" is the needed component for clarity. Overbought and oversold conditions have their own inertia, yada, yada, yada... From a fundamental standpoint, I've been reading all the macroeconomic commentaries...the comparisons with Japan, a European domino effect into recession/depression, historical P/E's, etc. The case for a Naz decline to 1800, 1500, 1200 or less is convincing if the following assumptions are accepted: 1) Since the markets historically lead economic activity by 6-9 months, there will be no economic recovery until Q1, 2002, at the earliest. 2) Fed policy of adding reserves and lowering interest rates will not have any appreciable effect on business or investment. 3) Tax cuts, large or small, will have no appreciable effect on business or investment. 4) External events, primarily the collapse of Japan and Europe, along with further turmoil in the Middle East will push the U.S. into a recession/depression no matter what we do. I seriously doubt those assumptions and believe most (if not all) of the downside is already built in. We may not be at the absolute bottom but I really like JNIC and FNSR under 12, JDSU at 26, CSCO at 22, etc. At those prices I can actually afford to put a few shares away and call it "savings." What a concept! Thanks for mentioning JNIC...it's a fallen angel but well worth a closer look at its current price, imo--MK--